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- Author or Editor: William R. Cotton x
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Abstract
Based on numerical experiments in droplet collection with a stochastic model similar to Berry's, a new quantitative definition of autoconversion is discussed. The new formulation of autoconversion is compared with Kessler's and with Berry's. The new formulation has the decisive advantage over Berry's model of being directly compatible with Kessler's accretion model.
Abstract
Based on numerical experiments in droplet collection with a stochastic model similar to Berry's, a new quantitative definition of autoconversion is discussed. The new formulation of autoconversion is compared with Kessler's and with Berry's. The new formulation has the decisive advantage over Berry's model of being directly compatible with Kessler's accretion model.
Abstract
A numerical model of supercooled cumuli is developed and discussed. Water substance in the model is idealized to be partitioned into the five phase components; namely, water vapor, liquid cloud water, liquid rainwater, frozen rainwater, and ice crystals. Continuity equations are developed that predict the distribution of water substance among the five phase components. The cloud dynamic framework consists of a simple one-dimensional Lagrangian model that includes the effects of entrainment. The model is able to operate either as a steady-state model or as a spherical vortex model.
The results of two case study experiments illustrated that the principle action of ice particles nucleated on sublimation nuclei, or by the freezing of cloud droplets in cumulus clouds containing moderate to heavy amounts of supercooled rainwater, is to promote the freezing of supercooled rainwater. On the other hand, clouds containing small amounts of supercooled rainwater are dynamically insensitive to moderate concentrations of ice crystals. In such clouds, extensive riming and vapor deposition growth of crystals in concentrations of several thousand per liter are required before they make significant contributions to the dynamic structure of the cloud.
Finally, it was found that the warm-cloud precipitation process can either invigorate or retard the dynamic behavior of a supercooled cloud, depending upon the height and magnitude of the precipitation process.
Abstract
A numerical model of supercooled cumuli is developed and discussed. Water substance in the model is idealized to be partitioned into the five phase components; namely, water vapor, liquid cloud water, liquid rainwater, frozen rainwater, and ice crystals. Continuity equations are developed that predict the distribution of water substance among the five phase components. The cloud dynamic framework consists of a simple one-dimensional Lagrangian model that includes the effects of entrainment. The model is able to operate either as a steady-state model or as a spherical vortex model.
The results of two case study experiments illustrated that the principle action of ice particles nucleated on sublimation nuclei, or by the freezing of cloud droplets in cumulus clouds containing moderate to heavy amounts of supercooled rainwater, is to promote the freezing of supercooled rainwater. On the other hand, clouds containing small amounts of supercooled rainwater are dynamically insensitive to moderate concentrations of ice crystals. In such clouds, extensive riming and vapor deposition growth of crystals in concentrations of several thousand per liter are required before they make significant contributions to the dynamic structure of the cloud.
Finally, it was found that the warm-cloud precipitation process can either invigorate or retard the dynamic behavior of a supercooled cloud, depending upon the height and magnitude of the precipitation process.
Abstract
In this paper, testing, implementation, and evolution of both static and dynamic seeding concepts are reviewed. A brief review of both waterspray and hygroscopic seeding is first presented. This is followed by reviews of static seeding of stable orographic clouds and supercooled cumuli. We conclude with a review of dynamic seeding concepts with particular focus on the Florida studies.
It is concluded that it is encouraging that our testing procedures have evolved from single-response-variable “blackbox” experiments to randomized experiments that attempt to test a number of components in the hypothesized chain of physical responses to seeding. It is cautioned, however, that changes in the seeding strategy to optimize detection of a physical response (in any of the intermediate links in the hypothesized chain of responses) can have an adverse effect upon rainfall on the ground.
Abstract
In this paper, testing, implementation, and evolution of both static and dynamic seeding concepts are reviewed. A brief review of both waterspray and hygroscopic seeding is first presented. This is followed by reviews of static seeding of stable orographic clouds and supercooled cumuli. We conclude with a review of dynamic seeding concepts with particular focus on the Florida studies.
It is concluded that it is encouraging that our testing procedures have evolved from single-response-variable “blackbox” experiments to randomized experiments that attempt to test a number of components in the hypothesized chain of physical responses to seeding. It is cautioned, however, that changes in the seeding strategy to optimize detection of a physical response (in any of the intermediate links in the hypothesized chain of responses) can have an adverse effect upon rainfall on the ground.
Abstract
A review of convective cloud modeling spanning the period from the days of the NOAA Experimental Meteorology Laboratory (EML) in the late 1960s to 2000 is presented. The intent is to illustrate the evolution of cloud models from the one-dimensional parcel-type models to the current generation of three-dimensional convective storm models and cloud ensemble models. Moreover, it is shown that Dr. Joanne Simpson played a pivotal role in the evolution of cloud models from the very first models to current generation cloud ensemble models. It is also shown that the first concept of the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) began while Drs. Cotton and Pielke worked under Dr. Simpson's supervision at EML. It is then illustrated how far cloud modeling has come with recent applications of RAMS to atmospheric research and numerical weather prediction. The chapter concludes with an outline of the major limitations of current generation convective cloud models.
Abstract
A review of convective cloud modeling spanning the period from the days of the NOAA Experimental Meteorology Laboratory (EML) in the late 1960s to 2000 is presented. The intent is to illustrate the evolution of cloud models from the one-dimensional parcel-type models to the current generation of three-dimensional convective storm models and cloud ensemble models. Moreover, it is shown that Dr. Joanne Simpson played a pivotal role in the evolution of cloud models from the very first models to current generation cloud ensemble models. It is also shown that the first concept of the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) began while Drs. Cotton and Pielke worked under Dr. Simpson's supervision at EML. It is then illustrated how far cloud modeling has come with recent applications of RAMS to atmospheric research and numerical weather prediction. The chapter concludes with an outline of the major limitations of current generation convective cloud models.
Abstract
A one-dimensional time-dependent cumulus model is developed and discussed. Data predicted by the model along with a bulk entrainment model are compared with a case study observation and Warner's mean profile of Q/QA . While a great deal of the discrepancy between observed and predicted data can he attributed to the transient nature of convection, the consistent pattern of overprediction of such cloud properties as Q/QA and vertical velocity is indeed disturbing. It is concluded that neither the entrainment model nor the scalar nonlinear eddy viscosity model can adequately treat the general problem of turbulent transport in convective clouds. There is, however, sufficient evidence suggesting the models can he of practical value if their use is limited to dynamically active clouds and, in the case of the entrainment model, to a restricted portion of the cloud cycle life. Furthermore, there is little doubt that the entrainment coefficient is not a universal constant while the universality of the mixing length coefficients in the eddy viscosity models is still in question.
Abstract
A one-dimensional time-dependent cumulus model is developed and discussed. Data predicted by the model along with a bulk entrainment model are compared with a case study observation and Warner's mean profile of Q/QA . While a great deal of the discrepancy between observed and predicted data can he attributed to the transient nature of convection, the consistent pattern of overprediction of such cloud properties as Q/QA and vertical velocity is indeed disturbing. It is concluded that neither the entrainment model nor the scalar nonlinear eddy viscosity model can adequately treat the general problem of turbulent transport in convective clouds. There is, however, sufficient evidence suggesting the models can he of practical value if their use is limited to dynamically active clouds and, in the case of the entrainment model, to a restricted portion of the cloud cycle life. Furthermore, there is little doubt that the entrainment coefficient is not a universal constant while the universality of the mixing length coefficients in the eddy viscosity models is still in question.
Abstract
No abstract available.
Abstract
No abstract available.
This review is begun with a brief summary of the current status of our understanding of the physics of precipitation in warm clouds. The impact of warm-cloud precipitation processes on the evolution of the ice phase in supercooled clouds also is discussed.
This is followed by a review of experimental attempts to modify the microstructure of warm clouds. Modeling studies of warm cloud modification and observational studies of inadvertent warm cloud modification also are drawn upon to further elucidate the physics of warm cloud modification. The hypotheses, and evidence, for dynamic modification of warm clouds are then discussed. A few brief comments on modeling of warm cloud processes also are given. These comments are intended to serve as a warning to the non-modeler to be very cautious in taking the results of the modeling studies at face value. Finally, the review is concluded with specific recommendations regarding the current status of warm cloud modification, and future directions for the scientist and the weather modification practitioner.
This review is begun with a brief summary of the current status of our understanding of the physics of precipitation in warm clouds. The impact of warm-cloud precipitation processes on the evolution of the ice phase in supercooled clouds also is discussed.
This is followed by a review of experimental attempts to modify the microstructure of warm clouds. Modeling studies of warm cloud modification and observational studies of inadvertent warm cloud modification also are drawn upon to further elucidate the physics of warm cloud modification. The hypotheses, and evidence, for dynamic modification of warm clouds are then discussed. A few brief comments on modeling of warm cloud processes also are given. These comments are intended to serve as a warning to the non-modeler to be very cautious in taking the results of the modeling studies at face value. Finally, the review is concluded with specific recommendations regarding the current status of warm cloud modification, and future directions for the scientist and the weather modification practitioner.
Abstract
This paper utilizes experimental data from a multiple Doppler radar and surface mesoscale network to describe the evolution and structure of a small, isolated, mesoscale convective system over the South Park region of central Colorado. This system evolved from a cluster of convective clouds which eventually transformed to a mature system possessing both stratiform and convective components. The structure of individual precipitating convective clouds comprising the mature system depended on their location (upshear or downshear) relative to the system. Unsteady upshear convective components formed discretely and propagated upshear. In contrast, downshear convective components occupied a greater area, exhibited more steadiness, and propagated downshear.
Doppler analyses indicate that mesoscale updrafts within anvils flanking the convective cores existed relatively early, about 1.5 h after first cloud formation. Mesoscale downdrafts did not appear until ∼3 h after precipitation initiation. The appearance of a mesoscale downdraft was temporally correlated with intensification of the upshear convective region. The analyses suggest a close dependence between upshear convection and the stratiform region in this case. Upshear convection supplied condensate to the stratiform region, while the stratiform region produced mesoscale downdrafts whose outflow boundary helped maintain the upshear convection.
Abstract
This paper utilizes experimental data from a multiple Doppler radar and surface mesoscale network to describe the evolution and structure of a small, isolated, mesoscale convective system over the South Park region of central Colorado. This system evolved from a cluster of convective clouds which eventually transformed to a mature system possessing both stratiform and convective components. The structure of individual precipitating convective clouds comprising the mature system depended on their location (upshear or downshear) relative to the system. Unsteady upshear convective components formed discretely and propagated upshear. In contrast, downshear convective components occupied a greater area, exhibited more steadiness, and propagated downshear.
Doppler analyses indicate that mesoscale updrafts within anvils flanking the convective cores existed relatively early, about 1.5 h after first cloud formation. Mesoscale downdrafts did not appear until ∼3 h after precipitation initiation. The appearance of a mesoscale downdraft was temporally correlated with intensification of the upshear convective region. The analyses suggest a close dependence between upshear convection and the stratiform region in this case. Upshear convection supplied condensate to the stratiform region, while the stratiform region produced mesoscale downdrafts whose outflow boundary helped maintain the upshear convection.
Abstract
In this paper the authors address one type of severe weather: strong straight-line winds. The case of a mesoscale convective system that developed in eastern Colorado on 12–13 May 1985 was studied. The system formed in the afternoon, was active until early morning, and caused strong winds during the night.
A multiscale nonhydrostatic full physics simulation was performed to formulate a conceptual model of the main airflow branches of the system, and to gain understanding of the physical processes involved in the strong wind generation in this storm. Four telescopically nested grids covering from the synoptic-scale down to cloud-scale circulations were used. A Lagrangian model was employed to follow trajectories of parcels that took part in the updraft and downdraft, and balances of forces were computed along the trajectories.
The strong nocturnal winds were caused by downdrafts reaching the surface and by a dynamically forced horizontal pressure gradient force. The most important branch of the downdraft had an “up–down” trajectory. Parcels originated close to the ground, were lifted up by a strong upward-directed pressure gradient force, and became colder than their surroundings as they ascended in a stable environment. Then, as they went through the precipitation shaft, they sank due to negative buoyancy enhanced by condensate loading. The upward pressure gradient force was partially related to midlevel perturbation vorticity in the storm.
Abstract
In this paper the authors address one type of severe weather: strong straight-line winds. The case of a mesoscale convective system that developed in eastern Colorado on 12–13 May 1985 was studied. The system formed in the afternoon, was active until early morning, and caused strong winds during the night.
A multiscale nonhydrostatic full physics simulation was performed to formulate a conceptual model of the main airflow branches of the system, and to gain understanding of the physical processes involved in the strong wind generation in this storm. Four telescopically nested grids covering from the synoptic-scale down to cloud-scale circulations were used. A Lagrangian model was employed to follow trajectories of parcels that took part in the updraft and downdraft, and balances of forces were computed along the trajectories.
The strong nocturnal winds were caused by downdrafts reaching the surface and by a dynamically forced horizontal pressure gradient force. The most important branch of the downdraft had an “up–down” trajectory. Parcels originated close to the ground, were lifted up by a strong upward-directed pressure gradient force, and became colder than their surroundings as they ascended in a stable environment. Then, as they went through the precipitation shaft, they sank due to negative buoyancy enhanced by condensate loading. The upward pressure gradient force was partially related to midlevel perturbation vorticity in the storm.
Abstract
An analysis of an intense, quasi-steady thunderstorm which developed over mountainous terrain is presented. This storm, extensively analyzed using multiple Doppler radar and surface mesonet data, formed within an environment having strong low-level wind shear. The evolution and characteristics of the mesoscale systems prior to storm formation are presented in Part I (Cotton et al., 1982). Such an environment was responsible for several unique storm features, including a quasi-steady primary updraft circulation and movement 50° to the left of the cloud layer (2–8 km AGL) environmental winds.
Several interactions were observed or inferred near and within the storm. Vertical transport of northerly low-level momentum within the updraft imparted a significant blocking on mid-level flow having southerly momentum. Such a blocking affected the movement and characteristics of adjacent, less organized storms. Additional storm-environment interactions produced an organized recirculation of precipitation particles from the mid-level updraft to the low-level updraft.
It is concluded that the steadiness of the storm depended on two factors: 1) the introduction of low-level flow which was directed opposite to mid-level flow, 2) formation of persistent downdrafts of sufficient magnitude to sustain an active gust front.
Abstract
An analysis of an intense, quasi-steady thunderstorm which developed over mountainous terrain is presented. This storm, extensively analyzed using multiple Doppler radar and surface mesonet data, formed within an environment having strong low-level wind shear. The evolution and characteristics of the mesoscale systems prior to storm formation are presented in Part I (Cotton et al., 1982). Such an environment was responsible for several unique storm features, including a quasi-steady primary updraft circulation and movement 50° to the left of the cloud layer (2–8 km AGL) environmental winds.
Several interactions were observed or inferred near and within the storm. Vertical transport of northerly low-level momentum within the updraft imparted a significant blocking on mid-level flow having southerly momentum. Such a blocking affected the movement and characteristics of adjacent, less organized storms. Additional storm-environment interactions produced an organized recirculation of precipitation particles from the mid-level updraft to the low-level updraft.
It is concluded that the steadiness of the storm depended on two factors: 1) the introduction of low-level flow which was directed opposite to mid-level flow, 2) formation of persistent downdrafts of sufficient magnitude to sustain an active gust front.
