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Edward A. Zurndorfer, Joseph R. Bocchieri, Gary M. Carter, J. Paul Dallavalle, David B. Gilhousen, Karl F. Hebenstreit, and David J. Vercelli

(Manuscript received 19 December 1978, in final form March 1979) ABSTRACT In this paper, we present trends in the verification scores of the Techniques Development Laboratory's (TDL's) operational guidance forecasts and the National Weather Service local forecastsmade at Weather Service Forecast Offices (WSFO's). Verification statistics for objective guidanceand subjective local forecasts of probability of precipitation (POP), precipitation type, surface wind,opaque sky cover

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Kieran J. Lynch, David J. Brayshaw, and Andrew Charlton-Perez

between the forecast and hindcasts in terms of the correlation between the ensemble mean and the observations. Section 4 examines the probabilistic predictability of the operational forecasts using verification scores and a number of common diagnostics. In section 5 , the value of the forecasts to the end user is demonstrated in terms of cost/loss ratios. The findings are then discussed with potential applications in section 6 , and conclusions are presented in section 7 . 2. Data and methodology

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C. H. Dey and R. D. McPherson

curre.ntly operational at the National Meteorological Center (NMC)is used in the investigation. The global analyses in this system are essentially nondivergent. The 6 h forecast divergence produced by the global model is in good synoptic agreement the analyzedmass field valid at the time of the forecast. Nevertheless, the divergent initialization causes only smallchanges in both the global analyses and forecasts. The small changes in the forecast have no significant'impact on the

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Lester F. Hubert

222 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW JUKE 1959AN OPERATIONAL TESTOF A NUMERICAL PREDICTION METHOD FOR HURRICANESLester F. HubsrtU.S. Weather Bureau, Washington. D.C.[Manuscript received May 25, 1959; revised July 17, 19591ABSTRACTSeventeen forecasts of hurricane tracks, each up to 72 hours, were made by numerical methods under opera-tional conditions as a test of Kasahara's [5] prediction model. Although the small size of the sample precludesmaking firm conclusions, the results here obtained compare

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Gidon Eshel, Mark A. Cane, and Brian F. Farrell

observations, and internal distribution of variance, are both highly significant. The forecasts can certainly be further refined. However, the present method performs surprisingly well, providing more than a full year of drought warning, with further refinement in the preceding early spring. Most importantly, the scheme can be implemented operationally by the region’s authorities with nontrivial but straightforward modifications. Acknowledgments B. Farrell was supported by NSF Grant ATM9623539, G. Eshel by

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Jongil Han and Hua-Lu Pan

1. Introduction To suppress spurious tropical storm development from initially weak tropical disturbances (known as the false alarm problem in hurricane forecasting), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP) operational Global Forecast System (GFS) and its nested Regional Spectral Model (RSM) have recently included convective momentum transport (CMT) in their simplified Arakawa–Shubert (SAS; Pan and Wu 1995 ) cumulus scheme by allowing mass fluxes induced in the updraft and

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Allan H. Murphy

relationships between the value of reliable probabilistic forecasts and the value of climatological and categorical forecasts are quite robust in the sense that these relationships appear to hold formost if not all values of C/L even for moderately unreliable forecasts. The results presented in this paper have important implicatigns for operational forecasting proceduresand practices. These implications relate to the desirability of formulating and disseminating a wide varietyof weather forecasts in

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Allan H. Murphy and Qian Ye

practical significance of this relation warrants further investigation. An operational method of comparing forecasting systems using the sufficiency relation has recently beendescribed in the forecasting literature. This method involves the construction of a so-called forecast suJficiencycharacteristic (FSC) for each forecasting system, based on a representative set of forecasts and observations. Interms of this characterization, system A is sufficient for system B if A's FSC is superior to B's FSC

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James P. McGuirk

Vertical Sounder (TOYS) radiance observationsthat is not utilized by operational sounding retrieval and analysis-initialization schemes. Temperature andmoisture signals are extracted from operationally available TOVS channel radiances for a tropical plume thatdeveloped over the North Pacific in January 1989, and are inserted into the National Meteorological Center's(NMC) operational medium-range forecast model. Several 48-h forecasts are made to test the impact of theadditional information. A

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Allan H. Murphy, Yin-Sheng Chen, and Robert T. Clemen

analysis are employed: 1) ordinary least squares regression analysis and 2) a Bayesian information-contentanalysis. Maximum and minimum temperature forecasts formulated operationally for six National Weather Serviceoffices during the period 1980-86 are analyzed. Results produced by the two methods are quite consistent andcan be summarized as follows: 1) the subjective forecasts contain information not included in the objectiveforecasts for all cases (i.e., stratifications) considered and 2) the

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