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Yukiko Imada, Shinjiro Kanae, Masahide Kimoto, Masahiro Watanabe, and Masayoshi Ishii

advance notice of the tendency of the continuous seasonal rainfall at the beginning of August 2011, the flood damage could have been reduced. We based the statistical function on SVDA following the case of Taiwan in Chu et al. (2008) , but chose the predictor after taking full account of the climatic properties of Thailand and the skill of the CGCM forecast. The novelty of our forecasting system is that it is based on a fully coupled model including an ocean assimilation system (one-tier forecasting

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Huw C. Davies

heat in a resting ambient atmosphere yields a net descent in the inner core of the initially warmed region with ascent above and below ( Fanelli and Bannon 2005 ). This contrast in the heating–ascent relationship is relevant in an NWP context. Longstanding challenges in NWP are to deliver reliable quantitative forecasting of precipitation, and to develop robust and effective techniques to assimilate/adjust model fields to account for misrepresented or unrepresented cloud diabatic heating. The

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George H. Bryan, Jason C. Knievel, and Matthew D. Parker

’s relevance to squall-line properties that is based on a model other than that used by RKW88 and WR04 . Therefore, the main goal of our study is to assess whether RKW theory’s relevance to squall lines is supported by other numerical models. We base our new simulations on the recent study by WR04 , using the same simulation details and analysis techniques. We use three additional numerical models, all of which have been developed more recently than the model used by WR04 . Our findings provide

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Dominik Jacques, Daniel Michelson, Jean-François Caron, and Luc Fillion

the Rapid Refresh (RAP) and the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR), latent heating is prescribed by 3D reflectivity observations at the beginning of forecasts ( Weygandt and Benjamin 2007 ; Weygandt et al. 2008 ; Alexander et al. 2017 ). Of all diabatic initialization techniques, latent heat nudging (LHN; Wang and Warner 1988 ; Manobianco et al. 1994 ; Jones and Macpherson 1997 ) is probably the most popular method for assimilating radar reflectivity in operational systems. It has been used

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Bo Liu, Boujemaa Ait-El-Fquih, and Ibrahim Hoteit

are updated as in the KF and their weights are updated as in the PF. Two families of GM-based algorithms can be distinguished by how the forecast GM approximation is constructed: Clustering-based GM algorithms— In this class of algorithms, clustering techniques are used to build a GM representation of the forecast pdf from a forecast ensemble. When a new observation is available, the weights are first updated according to the PF. The particles are then resampled before applying the Kalman update

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Stephen B. Cocks and William M. Gray

to compare this technique to techniques currently in use in the western Pacific. Presently, the JTWC uses a combination of climatological parameters to estimate a radius of 17.5 m s −1 winds (where R17 is a persistent artifact of 35-kt wind forecast technology) in lieu of in situ data such as ship and island reports or scatterometer measurements. One such method includes using infrared satellite imagery to infer the area of deep convection from cold (−65°C) cloud tops extending from the center

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Reto Stauffer, Nikolaus Umlauf, Jakob W. Messner, Georg J. Mayr, and Achim Zeileis

exceeds threshold κ [Eq. (A6) ], and the binary observation which takes 0 for all observations and 1 otherwise. Correspondingly, the Brier skill score is defined as REFERENCES Ben Bouallègue , Z. , and S. E. Theis , 2014 : Spatial techniques applied to precipitation ensemble forecasts: From verification results to probabilistic products . Meteor. Appl. , 21 , 922 – 929 , doi: 10.1002/met.1435 . 10.1002/met.1435 Box , G. E. P. , and D. R. Cox , 1964 : An analysis of

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Aaron Donohoe and David S. Battisti

a skew-normal distribution to the Eulerian data in section 4 , and we show that the cyclone/anticyclone asymmetry makes only a minor contribution to the time-mean field in the storm-track regions. A summary and discussion follow. 2. Data, techniques, and filter properties The data used in this study are 6-hourly sea level pressure data from the 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40; Uppala et al. 2005 ) at a horizontal resolution of T62. 1 We

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Andrew W. Robertson, Nicolas Vigaud, Jing Yuan, and Michael K. Tippett

1. Introduction Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) forecasting at lead times of about 10–100 days has garnered much recent attention due to advances in dynamical model skill at predicting the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO; Vitart 2014 ; Kim et al. 2018 ) and through the construction of new multimodel databases of subseasonal forecasts and reforecasts ( Vitart et al. 2017 ; Pegion et al. 2019 ). However, the degree of useful forecast skill is still unclear in the extratropics where weather and

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Paul J. Roebber

Training Workshop on the Interpretation of NWP Products in Terms of Local Weather Phenomena and Their Verification, Wageningen, Netherlands, WMO, WMO PSMP Rep. Series 34, XX-27–XX-32 . Raftery , A. E. , T. Gneiting , F. Balabdaoui , and M. Polakowski , 2005 : Using Bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles . Mon. Wea. Rev. , 133 , 1155 – 1174 , doi: 10.1175/MWR2906.1 . Roebber , P. J. , 1998 : The regime dependence of degree day forecast technique, skill, and value

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