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Michael L. Van Woert, Cheng-Zhi Zou, Walter N. Meier, Philip D. Hovey, Ruth H. Preller, and Pamela G. Posey

1. Introduction The meteorological community has a long-standing history of environmental forecasting. In concert with developing new forecast systems, that community has put considerable energy into developing methods for assessing changes in forecast skill. Operational ocean forecasting systems are in their infancy, but there is considerable interest in developing robust, skillful forecast systems for that environment (e.g., Koblinsky and Smith 2001 ; Pinardi and Woods 2002 ). Sea ice

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Dae-Hui Kim and Hyun Mee Kim

identical system ( Tremolet 2007 ; Gelaro and Zhu 2009 ). However, the FSO is mostly valid from 1 to 3 days because of the tangent linear assumptions, which makes it inappropriate to apply for long-term forecasts ( Cardinali 2009 ). Atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) are observation data included in the observation system of the operational NWP centers ( Velden et al. 2005 ; Wu et al. 2015 ). The AMVs are produced by tracking the movement of clouds and water vapor in successive satellite images

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Yuhang Zhu, Yineng Li, and Shiqiu Peng

the TC track forecast still has a great potential to be improved. Because of the high impact of TCs, more and more operational agencies or research institutes participate in the TC forecast of the NWP, including the South China Sea Institute of Oceanology (SCSIO). This paper introduces a real-time Regional Forecast System of the SCS Marine Environment (denoted as RFSSME) established in the SCSIO and its performance in the track and accompanying sea waves forecasts of Supertyphoon Mangkhut (2018

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William Bell, Sabatino Di Michele, Peter Bauer, Tony McNally, Stephen J. English, Nigel Atkinson, Fiona Hilton, and Janet Charlton

radiometric performance of these instruments is a key factor in determining their impact in NWP systems. The purpose of this paper is to assess the sensitivity of NWP forecast accuracy to the radiometric performance of the 50-GHz temperature sounding channels to assist in the specification of future operational instruments. This has been tackled through a series of observing system experiments (OSEs) using both normal AMSU data and synthetically noise-degraded AMSU data within two operational NWP systems

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R. Harikumar, N. K. Hithin, T. M. Balakrishnan Nair, P. Sirisha, B. Krishna Prasad, C. Jeyakumar, Shailesh Nayak, and S. S. C. Shenoi

–May (FMAM), June–September (JJAS), and October–January (ONDJ). During February–May ( Fig. 8a ), more than 95% of OAS- and altimeter-derived Hs collocations are inside the 30% error zone. The forecast wave parameter with SI of less than 30% is extensively accepted by the user community for operational planning ( Woodcock and Greenslade 2007 ). The OAS forecast across TNIO shows a clear overestimation, as altimetry-derived wave heights are mostly in a low range of 1–2 m ( Fig. 8a ). An overestimation of

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Shixuan Zhang, Zhaoxia Pu, Derek J. Posselt, and Robert Atlas

the Development Testbed Center at NCAR. The model configuration was set to be as close as possible to the NCEP operational HWRF in spring 2016 (i.e., as used during the 2015 hurricane season) but with a horizontal resolution of 27/9/3 km in three HWRF nested domains without ocean model coupling. The DA system uses the NCEP Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI)-based hybrid ensemble three-dimensional variational DA (3DVAR) system ( Wu et al. 2002 ). Because of the absence of ensemble forecasts

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Brett T. Hoover and Chris S. Velden

1. Introduction The evaluation of observing system changes on the forecast has been a crucial part of advancing operational numerical weather prediction (NWP), which has seen significant gains in forecast skill in the last few decades through advancement of data assimilation ( Bauer et al. 2015 ). Often, this evaluation is obtained through observing system experiments (OSEs) in which observations are either excluded or added to assimilation, relative to a control, to assess their impact on

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Carole Peubey and William Bell

–5. These channels have weighting functions peaking from near the surface to around 22 km and are assimilated in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational system. Two independent studies have shown that such microwave sounders are affected by significant uncertainties in on-orbit passband center frequencies ( Lu et al. 2011 ; Zou and Wang 2011 ). These uncertainties can result from uncertainties in the prelaunch measurements, or a shift that has taken place after launch

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E. Goldberg, R. Kittredge, and A. Polguère

, including both theweather depiction charts and the forecasts generatedfrom them, have been reviewed by operational meteorologists at a number of sites in Canada and generallybeen judged to be quite ~/cceptable. To a large extent,this can be ascribed to the richness of the input datasyntax. Even so, this data is relatively straightforwardto produce by computer compared to the final forecasttext. MARWORDS has succeeded in splitting the lin guistic knowledge embodied in a forecast from the me

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Chanh Q. Kieu, Nguyen Minh Truong, Hoang Thi Mai, and Thanh Ngo-Duc

computational and storage resources for ensemble experiments, the nested-grid domains have 31σ levels in the vertical, and the ( x , y ) dimensions of 155 × 155 and 151 × 151 grid points for the 36- and 12-km domains, respectively. The outer model domain covers an area of ~5600 km × 5600 km, which is centered in the South China Sea, to the east of Vietnam ( Fig. 2 ). Although the model configuration with the finest resolution of 12 km is not optimal as compared to the current operational hurricane forecast

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