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James S. Goerss and Charles R. Sampson

using COAMPS-TC. Atmospheric Science (AS) and Ocean Science (OS), C.-C. Wu and J. Gan, Eds., Advances in Geosciences, Vol. 28, World Scientific, 15–28 . Draper, N. R. , and Smith H. , 1966 : Applied Regression Analysis. John Wiley and Sons, 407 pp . Emanuel, K. , DesAutels C. , Holloway C. , and Korty R. , 2004 : Environmental control of tropical cyclone intensity . J. Atmos. Sci. , 61 , 843 – 858 , doi:10.1175/1520-0469(2004)061<0843:ECOTCI>2.0.CO;2 . Goerss, J. S. , 2000

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Clifford H. Dey

fieldsfor intermediate levels. Statistical regression is used toinfer background fields above 300 mb from the 300mb analysis (Brown 1959). Thus, although the analysismethod itself is two-dimensional, the sequence of application and vertical checks exerts a strong tendencyfor .consistent vertical structure. Application of theweighting function to a discrete sample of observationsin decreasing scan radii, however, can lead to noisyanalyses. This necessitated use of a filter (Shuman1957) to provide spatial

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Caren Marzban, Stephen Leyton, and Brad Colman

displays validation HSS values that are superior to both logistic regression and NN, in spite of the latter’s wide spread in the training HSS values. As such, it is not possible to assess the relative performance of the three models. Analogous figures for all 30 stations have been produced, but are not shown here. 8 To distill that information, a coarse categorization of the results is in order. Given that logistic regression is an NN with zero hidden nodes, an analysis of such figures for all 39

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Christopher M. Hill, Patrick J. Fitzpatrick, James H. Corbin, Yee H. Lau, and Sachin K. Bhate

pattern recognition and sounding variables. Both goals are assisted with monthly radar composites and multiple-regression analysis. Section 2 details the methodology used in this study. Section 3 presents the results of the study. Section 4 provides a discussion of the results and our conclusions. 2. Methodology Hourly observations of wind direction, wind speed, pressure, temperature, and dewpoint temperature are examined from 21 surface stations and 6 buoys in the region of interest, as are 12

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Johnny C. L. Chan, Jiu-en Shi, and Cheuk-man Lam

, Tat Chee Ave., Kowloon, Hong Kong.] . ——, and J. W. Tukey, 1974: A projection pursuit algorithm for exploratory data analysis. IEEE Trans. Comput., C-3, 881–889. 10.1109/T-C.1974.224051 ——, and W. Stuetzle, 1981: Projection pursuit regression. J. Amer. Stat. Assoc., 76, 817–823. 10.1080/01621459.1981.10477729 Gray, W. M., 1984: Atlantic seasonal hurricane frequency: Part I: El Niño and 30 mb quasi-biennial oscillation influences. Mon. Wea. Rev., 112, 1649–1668. 10

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Kimberly J. Mueller, Mark DeMaria, John Knaff, James P. Kossin, and Thomas H. Vonder Haar

with 405 cases from the 1995–2003 Atlantic and eastern Pacific hurricanes seasons, with a multiple linear regression analysis technique, and independent tests were performed on 50 cases from the 2004 hurricane season. The RMAX and V182 estimates were subsequently used in conjunction with a modified Rankine vortex wind model to estimate the symmetric tangential wind profile out to 202 km from the storm’s center. Finally, storm motion derived wind asymmetry was added to the symmetric wind profile to

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Thomas M. Hamill

simplicity, regression corrections and the usefulness of d prog/ dt was evaluated at a limited set of locations in the United States. These locations were the grid points nearest to Seattle, Washington, Los Angeles, California, Denver, Colorado; Minneapolis, Minnesota; San Antonio, Texas; Columbus, Ohio; Tampa, Florida; Cape Hatteras, North Carolina; and Portland, Maine. To minimize the direct effect of forecast bias and the annual cycle upon the analysis, a 31-day running mean climatology of the

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Seung-Eon Lee and Kyong-Hwan Seo

to reduce data errors and can help to build a stable prediction model. The moving-average window varied and spanned from 4 to 12 pentads so that each potential predictor had nine different time spans. The time coverage for each potential predictor ranged from 1994 to 2012, and the regression or composite analysis was conducted with data from 1994 to 2011 (18 yr). All variables were normalized so that the coefficients of the statistical model represented relative weightings. The following section

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John C. Derber, David F. Parrish, and Stephen J. Lord

538 WEATHER AND FORECASTING VOLUM-6NMC NOTESThe New Global Operational Analysis System at the National Meteorological CenterJOHN C. DERBER, DAVID F. PARRISH, AND STEPHEN J. LORDDevelopment Division, National Meteorological Center, Washington, D.C.26 July 1991 and 9 August 1991 ABSTRACT At the National Meteorological Center (NMC), a new analysis system was

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Paul H. Dobos, Richard J. Lind, and Russell L. Elsberry

observations during the Tropical Cyclone Motion (TCM-90) field experimentis used to relate lower-tropospheric winds to surface sustained winds and gusts on the west coast of Okinawa.Owing to the passage of four typhoons at various separation distances, hourly comparisons are possible forlower-tropospheric wind speeds ranging from 0 to 40 m s-~. Regressions with nonzero intercepts provide moreaccurate estimates than simple ratios between lower-tropospheric winds and surface sustained winds and gusts

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