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Ian P. White, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Edwin P. Gerber, Martin Jucker, Peter Hitchcock, and Jian Rao

:TNTSC%3E2.0.CO;2 . 10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<1969:TNTSC>2.0.CO;2 Andrews , D. G. , J. R. Holton , and C. B. Leovy , 1987 : Middle Atmosphere Dynamics . Academic Press, 489 pp. Baldwin , M. P. , and T. J. Dunkerton , 1999 : Propagation of the Arctic oscillation from the stratosphere to the troposphere . J. Geophys. Res. , 104 , 30 937 – 30 946 , https://doi.org/10.1029/1999JD900445 . 10.1029/1999JD900445 Baldwin , M. P. , and T. J. Dunkerton , 2001 : Stratospheric harbingers

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Bo Christiansen

: Propagation of the Arctic Oscillation from the stratosphere to the troposphere. J. Geophys. Res., 104 ( D24 ), 30 937–30 946 . Baldwin , M. P. , and T. J. Dunkerton , 2001 : Stratospheric harbingers of anomalous weather regimes . Science , 294 , 581 – 584 . Baldwin , M. P. , D. B. Stephenson , D. W. J. Thompson , T. J. Dunkerton , A. J. Charlton , and A. O’Neill , 2003 : Stratospheric memory and skill of extended-range weather forecasts . Science , 301 , 636 – 640

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Chaim I. Garfinkel, Darryn W. Waugh, and Edwin P. Gerber

. Meehl , 2006 : Contributions of external forcings to southern annular mode trends . J. Climate , 19 , 2896 – 2905 . Baldwin , M. P. , and T. J. Dunkerton , 1999 : Propagation of the Arctic Oscillation from the stratosphere to the troposphere . J. Geophys. Res. , 104 ( D24 ), 30 937 – 30 946 . Baldwin , M. P. , and T. J. Dunkerton , 2001 : Stratospheric harbingers of anomalous weather regimes . Science , 294 , 581 – 584 . Baldwin , M. P. , D. B. Stephenson , D. W. J

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Stephen Baxter and Sumant Nigam

PNA events. Additionally, intraseasonal tropical convection related to the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO; Madden and Julian 1971 , 1972 ) has been shown to contribute to both PNA development ( Higgins and Mo 1997 ) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO; Lin et al. 2009 ). The aforementioned studies would suggest that weakened convection in the eastern Indian Ocean and enhanced convection in the western tropical Pacific [a high real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) 2 index] would lead to a

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Clara Deser, Robert A. Tomas, and Lantao Sun

1. Introduction Perennial Arctic sea ice is projected to disappear by the mid-to-late twenty-first century in response to anthropogenically driven increases in greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations ( Stroeve et al. 2012 ; Stocker et al. 2013 ). The anticipated loss of Arctic sea ice is expected to impact climate at northern high and middle latitudes through a variety of mechanisms (e.g., Serreze and Barry 2011 ). The most robust impacts include thermodynamically driven warming and moistening of

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Shuyu Zhang, Thian Yew Gan, and Andrew B. G. Bush

and into the North Atlantic ( Serreze and Barrett 2011 ), is largely controlled by the surface wind field ( Thorndike and Colony 1982 ). The local atmospheric circulation is strongly teleconnected to the climate of remote regions through climate patterns, such as the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Pacific–North American pattern (PNA), and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The AO is the first mode of wintertime sea level pressure (SLP) variability for regions

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Hugues Goosse and Marika M. Holland

different processes reviewed in section 2 . The CCSM2 model is presented in section 3 . In section 4 , the mechanisms driving the simulated large-scale Arctic climate variability are analyzed, before some concluding remarks are given ( section 5 ). 2. A review of mechanisms driving Arctic variability a. Processes related to North Atlantic Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation The most widely studied mode of variability in the Arctic is associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation or the closely related

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Gary Grunseich and Bin Wang

ice reduction in the Arctic Ocean is widely attributed to anthropogenic climate change and dynamical and radiative feedbacks ( IPCC 2013 ; Screen and Simmonds 2010 ; Hall 2004 ). Recently, the long-term trends in remote tropical variability and its impacts on anomalous Arctic atmospheric circulations are receiving extensive attention. The prominent warming over Canada and Greenland since 1979 is found to be strongly associated with a negative trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation, which is a

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Le Chang, Jing-Jia Luo, Jiaqing Xue, Haiming Xu, and Nick Dunstone

not shown). c. ENSO impact on the Arctic internal variations in winter Previous studies suggested that internal modes of climate variability, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)–Arctic Oscillation (AO) ( Mysak and Venegas 1998 ; Kwok 2000 ; Rigor et al. 2002 ; Krahmann and Visbeck 2003 ; Zhang et al. 2004 ) and the Madden–Julian oscillation ( Yoo et al. 2011 ), play important roles in the Arctic climate variations. Tropical sea surface temperature (SST) also has important

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Jennifer Miletta Adams, Nicholas A. Bond, and James E. Overland

Oscillation The 20-yr time period we have selected spans an important and unprecedented climate shift that occurred around 1989 in association with the Arctic oscillation (AO) ( Thompson and Wallace 1998 ). The AO is characterized by latitudinal shifts of atmospheric mass that modulate the strength of the polar vortex. The spatial signature of the AO was noted earlier by van Loon and Williams (1980) who made a connection between sea level pressure in the North Atlantic–European area and the meridional

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