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Prashant Goswami and Nandini Harinath

observed structure of interannual variabilities. The equations governing the atmospheric and the oceanic variables for the coupled system can be written as where the subscripts a and o refer to atmospheric and oceanic variables respectively, u is the zonal velocity component; ϕ and η are the geopotential and thermocline depth respectively, D is the damping coefficient, γ and σ are the coupling coefficients for the ocean by wind stress; and the term σ η represents the effect of oceanic

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H. Tennekes

TO U~~ - --(Ow)i=A. (33) g hThe unknown coefficient A presumably is of order one.Substitution of (33) into (1) yields dh To h/x-- = A--u,~. (34) dt gThis relation was obtained first (on basis of dimensionalanalysis) by Kato and Phillips (1969), who studied therate of entrainment associated with thermocline erosionin the ocean. Their conclusions

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Chidong Zhang and Steven P. Anderson

MJO existing in atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) can become more realistic in its amplitude, phase speed, and seasonality if feedback from SST′ is allowed. Their results, however, failed to be repeated by Hendon (2000) , who found that the MJO simulated by a different AGCM is insignificantly affected by the feedback. He speculated that the discrepancies in simulated structure of the MJO might be the reason for the contradiction. Maloney and Kiehl (2002) found that their MJO

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Stefan Liess, Duane E. Waliser, and Siegfried D. Schubert

). However, the prediction of interannual variations of the Asian summer monsoon provides an ongoing challenge for numerical weather forecasts. Sperber et al. (2001) found in a multimodel study with seven models and between four and nine ensemble forecasts per model that only the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF), associated with the tropical convergence zone being located over the continental landmass, is reasonably predicted by most general circulation models (GCM). In addition to the Asian

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Anandu D. Vernekar

that the temperature at the earth'ssurface depends on the balance between incoming andoutgoing heat fluxes. The consideration of the heatfluxes provides a good physical basis in understandingthe geographical pattern of the temperature. Thegeneral circulation models compute surface temperatureover land- and ice-covered areas of the globe using theheat balance condition. The mean temperature for amonth is computed by averaging over the last 30 daysof the integrated period. The paramcterized forms

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T. K. Cheung and C. G. Little

a much smaller temperaturedrop than at the lower levels, or no detectable temperature perturbation at all. This is consistent with thesmall gradient of potential temperature in the upperlevels of the tower observed in Events 1, 2, 3 and 5. The theoretical relative streamlines for a weak internal solitary wave (i.e., one without closed circulation) are shown in Fig. 26 (after Christie and Muirhead1983). As the wave passes, it lifts ambient air throughthe height of the wave. Since the air is

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Peter J. Gierasch

dissipated by overshootingof the turbulent motions into the overlying stableregion. The consequence would be a different locationof the interface between radiative and convectiveregions and a different temperature profile within theradiative region. This is the circumstance we study. The problem of real geophysical interest is thegeneral circulation and the role of dissipation. A localheating radiative-convective model is obviously oversimplified, but in the face of the great complexity of thefull

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C. Nicolis and G. Nicolis

, C., and K. Hasselmann, 1977: Stochastic climate mod els. Part II: Application to sea-surface temperature anomalies and thermocline variability. Tellus, 29, 289-305.Gardiner, C., 1983: Handbook of Stochastic Methods. Springer, 442 pp.Hansen, A. R., A. Sutera, and J. J. Tribbia, 1991: The relation of mul tiple flow regimes to the climatic error in general circulation mod els: Southern Hemisphere winter. J. Atmos. Sci., 48, 1329-1335.Kim, K.-Y., and G. R. North, 1991: Surface temperature

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Adam H. Sobel and Suzana J. Camargo

winter while TC activity in the western North Pacific (and thus the ACE signal) peaks in northern summer and fall. On the other hand, the sharpness of the increases near lag 0 for the zonal wind and around lag +5 for the SST presumably indicates some direct influence exerted by the TCs on these fields. We might speculate that the delay of the SST increase relative to the zonal wind increase represents the time for the oceanic signal to be transmitted eastward, to a region of smaller thermocline depth

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C. Nicolis

reasonably small distance, even when attention is limited to a single type of observable such as the 500-mb geopotential height ( Van den Dool 1994 ). In view of the above limitations, theoretical ideas allowing one to arrive at a priori estimates of the probability of analogs of a given quality and of the waiting times necessary for their realization become highly desirable. An important development in this direction has been the observation that in an averaged sense, the distribution of circulation

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