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Jennifer A. Francis

, is challenging. As AA intensifies, however, evidence of its impacts is becoming clearer, particularly the regional and seasonal variations, and its dependence on the background state ( Overland et al. 2016 ; Sung et al. 2016 ; Nakamura et al. 2016b ). The abrupt flip of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) index from negative to positive in late 2013, coinciding with substantial ice loss in the Arctic’s Pacific sector (Chukchi–Beaufort Seas), provides an example of this relationship

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Weiqing Han, Jérôme Vialard, Michael J. McPhaden, Tong Lee, Yukio Masumoto, Ming Feng, and Will P.M. de Ruijter

providing some regional feedback. The caveat for this experiment was that the SSTAs were prescribed only in the midlatitudes of the southern Indian Ocean. SSTAs have smaller amplitudes in the equatorial and northern Indian Ocean basins, but their effects on convection can be large there because they are superimposed on high mean SSTs ( Fig. 2 ). Given the nonlinear dependence of convection on SST, tropical variability can affect the extratropics via atmospheric teleconnections, an issue that was not

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David A. Peterson, Edward J. Hyer, James R. Campbell, Michael D. Fromm, Johnathan W. Hair, Carolyn F. Butler, and Marta A. Fenn

western United States (e.g., Westerling et al. 2006 ; Dennison et al. 2014 ). In addition, aerosol and trace gas production, by-products of wildfire activity, are increasingly recognized as threats to regional air quality, visibility, and even global climate (e.g., Randerson et al. 2006 ; Spracklen et al. 2007 ; Salinas et al. 2013 ; Val Martin et al. 2013 ). As a result, several near-real-time global and regional smoke forecasting applications have been developed to support decision making by

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Ed Hawkins and Rowan Sutton

observation, such as an increase in global temperatures, or of a particular event such as an extreme flood or heatwave. For example, the warm global temperatures of 2014 were not particularly unusual compared to other years since 2000 but were very unusual compared to temperatures before 1900. Observation quality is also important for the choice of reference period. The uncertainty on the observed estimate of global and regional temperatures is larger in the past, especially pre-1900. In the case of the

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Walker S. Ashley and Stephen M. Strader

–Moore, Oklahoma, EF5—are illustrative of the enormous socioeconomic impact that can occur due to nature’s most violent weather hazard. These events affected, to varying degrees, developed landscapes, resulting in over 500 direct fatalities, thousands of injuries, and approximately $14–16 billion in direct losses ( NCDC 2015 ; Smith and Matthews 2015 ). The cases are part of a broader trend found in regional, national, and global hazard loss data, revealing that losses from weather-related disasters

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Sarah M. Kang, Matt Hawcroft, Baoqiang Xiang, Yen-Ting Hwang, Gabriel Cazes, Francis Codron, Traute Crueger, Clara Deser, Øivind Hodnebrog, Hanjun Kim, Jiyeong Kim, Yu Kosaka, Teresa Losada, Carlos R. Mechoso, Gunnar Myhre, Øyvind Seland, Bjorn Stevens, Masahiro Watanabe, and Sungduk Yu

number of studies to explain how the ITCZ responds to extratropical thermal forcing in global climate models that do not include ocean dynamics (e.g., Broccoli et al. 2006 ; Kang et al. 2009 ). Slab ocean coupled GCM experiments even suggest the extratropics as the forcing location most effective at shifting the ITCZ position ( Seo et al. 2014 ), lending credibility to the hypothesis that remote effects of the Southern Ocean warm bias are major contributors to the double ITCZ bias. To investigate

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C. L. Reddington, K. S. Carslaw, P. Stier, N. Schutgens, H. Coe, D. Liu, J. Allan, J. Browse, K. J. Pringle, L. A. Lee, M. Yoshioka, J. S. Johnson, L. A. Regayre, D. V. Spracklen, G. W. Mann, A. Clarke, M. Hermann, S. Henning, H. Wex, T. B. Kristensen, W. R. Leaitch, U. Pöschl, D. Rose, M. O. Andreae, J. Schmale, Y. Kondo, N. Oshima, J. P. Schwarz, A. Nenes, B. Anderson, G. C. Roberts, J. R. Snider, C. Leck, P. K. Quinn, X. Chi, A. Ding, J. L. Jimenez, and Q. Zhang

radiative forcing, over the industrial period of between near 0 and −2 W m −2 ( Boucher et al. 2013 ). This uncertainty has persisted through all Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports since 1996 and significantly limits our understanding of historical climate change and our confidence in climate change projections ( Andreae et al. 2005 ; Seinfeld et al. 2016 ). Changes in aerosols also have important effects on regional climate, atmospheric circulation, clouds, and

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M. N. Raphael, G. J. Marshall, J. Turner, R. L. Fogt, D. Schneider, D. A. Dixon, J. S. Hosking, J. M. Jones, and W. R. Hobbs

higher pressures in the circumpolar trough; and a second decrease of 2.1 hPa decade −1 in September, dominated by a remarkably deep ASL in 2008, which had a mean monthly central pressure of only 958 hPa. At a seasonal time scale the ASL has deepened most in austral spring (September–November) and fall (March–May), reflecting an increase in the regional amplitude of the semiannual oscillation since the late 1970s. IMPACTS OF THE AMUNDSEN SEA LOW ON ANTARCTIC CLIMATE. Studies examining the impact of

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Gabriele C. Hegerl, Emily Black, Richard P. Allan, William J. Ingram, Debbie Polson, Kevin E. Trenberth, Robin S. Chadwick, Phillip A. Arkin, Beena Balan Sarojini, Andreas Becker, Aiguo Dai, Paul J. Durack, David Easterling, Hayley J. Fowler, Elizabeth J. Kendon, George J. Huffman, Chunlei Liu, Robert Marsh, Mark New, Timothy J. Osborn, Nikolaos Skliris, Peter A. Stott, Pier-Luigi Vidale, Susan E. Wijffels, Laura J. Wilcox, Kate M. Willett, and Xuebin Zhang

. E. , and A. Dai , 2007 : Effects of Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption on the hydrological cycle as an analog of geoengineering . Geophys. Res. Lett. , 34 , L15702 , doi: 10.1029/2007GL030524 . Trenberth , K. E. , and J. T. Fasullo , 2013a : North American water and energy cycles . Geophys. Res. Lett. , 40 , 365 – 369 , doi: 10.1002/grl.50107 . Trenberth , K. E. , and J. T. Fasullo , 2013b : Regional energy and water cycles: Transports from ocean to land . J. Climate , 26

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Mitchell W. Moncrieff, Duane E. Waliser, and James Caughey

. Evaluation of cloud properties using satellite data showed that the effective radius of hydrometeors in upperlevel clouds is overestimated, and ice-water content is smaller than observed. An MJO simulated by NICAM with a 7-km grid showed that the organized convective momentum transport was dominated by second and third baroclinic effects. The high-resolution regional simulation of the April 2009 MJO, as part of the U.K. Cascade project, examines convective organization, scale interaction, and convective

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