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David J. Stensrud

large-scale environments. Part II: Generation of meso scale initial conditions. Mon. Wea. Rev., 122, 2068-2083.--, and ---, 1994b: Mesoscale convective systems in weakly forced large-scale environments. Part III: Numerical simulations and implications for operational forecasting. Mon. Wea. Rev., 122, 2084-2104.Velasco, I., and J. M. Fritsch, 1987: Mesoscale convective complexes in the Americas. J. Geophys. Res., 92, 9591-9613.Wallace, 1. M., and D. Gutzler, 1981: Teleconnections in the geo

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Luis Garcia-Carreras, Douglas J. Parker, and John H. Marsham

1. Introduction Mesoscale variations in land surface type affect the surface energy budget, via changes in Bowen ratio and albedo, in turn leading to variations in low-level temperatures ( Pielke 2001 ; Betts et al. 2007 ). One of the impacts of the temperature gradients that are formed at land surface type boundaries is the initiation of mesoscale flows analogous to sea breezes ( Segal and Arritt 1992 ). A wide range of modeling studies have looked at the impact of land surface–induced flows

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John Lindeman, Zafer Boybeyi, Dave Broutman, Jun Ma, Stephen D. Eckermann, and James W. Rottman

results only for Fr = ⅔. b. Mesoscale model We use version 2.2 of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) described in Skamarock et al. (2005) . The model is compressible, with fifth-/third-order finite differences for the horizontal/vertical advection, and third-order Runge–Kutta for the time step. The computational domain is 300 km × 300 km in the horizontal, with a horizontal grid spacing of 1 km and radiative lateral boundary conditions. The lower boundary is free-slip. The vertical grid

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Geet George, Bjorn Stevens, Sandrine Bony, Marcus Klingebiel, and Raphaela Vogel

1. Introduction Understanding how low-level clouds respond to their environment can help reduce uncertainties in climate sensitivity estimates ( Bony and Dufresne 2005 ; Zelinka et al. 2020 ). Tropical environmental conditions on the mesoscale (20–200 km) can change within a few hours to a day, whereas over the large scale, O (1000) km, conditions can be expected to persist for multiple days. What controls cloudiness at the mesoscale is not as well investigated as what controls them at the

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J. Berner, G. J. Shutts, M. Leutbecher, and T. N. Palmer

kinetic energy spectrum and spectral budget simulated by a high-resolution troposphere stratosphere mesosphere GCM. J. Atmos. Sci. , 58 , 329 – 348 . Leith , C. E. , 1978 : Objective methods for weather prediction. Annu. Rev. Fluid Mech. , 10 , 107 – 128 . Leutbecher , M. , and T. N. Palmer , 2008 : Ensemble forecasting. J. Comput. Phys. , 227 , 3515 – 3539 . Lilly , D. K. , 1983 : Stratified turbulence and the mesoscale variability of the atmosphere. J. Atmos. Sci. , 40

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George H. Bryan and J. Michael Fritsch

–447. Bluestein, H. B., 1986: Fronts and jet streaks: A theoretical perspective. Mesoscale Meteorology and Forecasting, P. S. Ray, Ed., Amer. Meteor. Soc., 173–215. Blumen, W., N. Gamage, R. L. Grossman, M. A. LeMone, and L. T. Miller, 1996: The low-level structure and evolution of a dry arctic front over the central United States. Part I: Mesoscale observations. Mon. Wea. Rev., 124, 1676–1692. Bryan, G. H., and J. M. Fritsch, 2000: Discrete propagation of surface fronts in a convective environment

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Fuqing Zhang and Dandan Tao

least for some storms the intensity forecasts may be intrinsically limited. This effect of moist convection in limiting predictability has also been seen for the mesoscale structure of midlatitude extratropical cyclones ( Zhang et al. 2002 , 2003 , 2007 ). The limited predictability of tropical cyclones has also been examined in the recent studies of Sippel and Zhang (2008 , 2010 ) and Nguyen et al. (2008 , hereafter NSM08 ). For example, NSM08 found that small random moisture perturbations

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Hongli Jiang and David J. Raymond

convective complexes in the middle latitudes. Mesoscale Meteorology and Forecasting, P. S. Ray, Ed., Amer. Meteor. Soc., 390-413.McAnelly, R. L., and W. R. Cotton, 1986: Meso/%scale character istics of an episode of mesoot-scale convective complexes. Mon. Wea. Rev., 114, 1740-1770.Raymond, D. J., 1992: Nonlinear balance and potential vorticity thinking at large Rossby number. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 118, 987-1015. , and H. Jiang, 1990: A theory for long-lived mesoscale con vective

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Russ S. Schumacher

. Dixon , S. L. Trotter , E. J. Powell , J. D. Durkee , and A. J. Grundstein , 2003 : Distribution of mesoscale convective complex rainfall in the United States . Mon. Wea. Rev. , 131 , 3003 – 3017 , doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(2003)131<3003:DOMCCR>2.0.CO;2 . Augustine , J. A. , and F. Caracena , 1994 : Lower-tropospheric precursors to nocturnal MCS development over the central United States . Wea. Forecasting , 9 , 116 – 135 , doi: 10.1175/1520-0434(1994)009<0116:LTPTNM>2.0.CO;2

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Nedjeljka Žagar, Roberto Buizza, and Joseph Tribbia

similar to the size of the ensemble (50 members). In agreement with the spread growth in physical space in Fig. 3 , the asymptotic curves in Fig. 7 appear rather distant from the 7-day forecast range, especially in the planetary scale and in scales smaller than zonal wavenumber 70 (a scale of about 200 km in the midlatitudes). A large gap between the ensemble spread and the asymptotic curve in this part of mesoscale range, especially in the IG component, seems difficult to close by the spread

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