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Robert G. Nystrom, Fuqing Zhang, Erin B. Munsell, Scott A. Braun, Jason A. Sippel, Yonghui Weng, and Kerry Emanuel

1. Introduction Tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasts have improved substantially over the past few decades. The 48-h track errors in the North Atlantic today have been reduced by 50% over the last 15 years ( Cangialosi and Franklin 2016 ). While these improvements in the forecast tracks generally hold, Hurricane Joaquin (2015) presents an unusual case in which current numerical weather prediction models struggled with the track forecast. The initial poor track forecast of Joaquin resulted in

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Robert G. Nystrom and Fuqing Zhang

1. Introduction Hurricane Patricia (2015) was an extraordinary storm in the eastern North Pacific basin that underwent an unprecedented rapid intensification (RI) process in which it intensified from a tropical storm, with maximum wind speeds of 30 m s −1 , to a category 5 hurricane, with maximum wind speeds of 95 m s −1 , in less than 36 h. While tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasts have been improving substantially over recent decades, and intensity forecast have also improved some in recent

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Jonathan Martinez, Michael M. Bell, Robert F. Rogers, and James D. Doyle

1. Introduction Accurate forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity changes remain one of the most difficult weather predictions, even for short lead times. This is in part due to multiscale interactions, which require operational forecast models to precisely capture the evolution of the atmosphere over a vast range of scales in the vicinity of a TC. DeMaria et al. (2014) demonstrated that although intensity forecast errors have not improved as much as track forecast errors over the past

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Nannan Qin and Da-Lin Zhang

questions in this study by conducting a series of cloud-permitting simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. It should be pointed out that the abovementioned poor predictability of the RI and extraordinary intensity of Patricia has been of typical concern for many tropical cyclones (TCs) ( Tallapragada and Kieu 2014 ), despite significant improvements in hurricane models and rapid progress in predicting hurricane tracks during the recent decades ( Rappaport et al. 2009 ). In

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David R. Ryglicki, Joshua H. Cossuth, Daniel Hodyss, and James D. Doyle

years to construct guidelines for forecasters by relating specific features with current intensity. It has since been refined several times to add objective methods for estimating TC strength ( Dvorak 1984 ; Zehr 1989 ; Guard et al. 1992 ; Velden et al. 1998 ; Olander et al. 2004 ; Olander and Velden 2007 ). A modern version of the Dvorak technique, the advanced Dvorak technique (ADT), has even been used as a reanalysis tool for historical TC studies ( Velden et al. 2017 ). In addition to the

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Benjamin C. Trabing, Michael M. Bell, and Bonnie R. Brown

attributed this to the thermal efficiency change. Wang et al. (2014) performed a similar analysis in three dimensions using the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF-ARW; Skamarock et al. 2008 ) to simulate how tropopause temperatures affect the intensity of TCs on both short and long time scales in RCE. The maximum intensity of their 3D TCs was found to increase by ~0.5 m s −1 K −1 cooling on both short and long time scales but no structural difference was

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Russell L. Elsberry, Eric A. Hendricks, Christopher S. Velden, Michael M. Bell, Melinda Peng, Eleanor Casas, and Qingyun Zhao

wind forecast are utilized at 15-min intervals for the 6-h period when special TCI-15 in situ datasets were available for validation ( section 2d ). It will be demonstrated in section 2e that the vortex structure in this dynamic initialization closely resembles the observed vortex tilt analyzed from a set of High-Definition Sounding System (HDSS) soundings deployed at a spacing of 4.5 km during an aircraft center overpass of Joaquin. This dynamic initialization analysis is then utilized in

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Quanjia Zhong, Jianping Li, Lifeng Zhang, Ruiqiang Ding, and Baosheng Li

1. Introduction The accuracy of tropical cyclone (TC) track and intensity forecasts is of particular importance for warning the public to protect life and property in the affected area. The accuracy of TC track forecasts has steadily improved in recent decades along with a global reduction in forecast error for operational hurricane forecast models ( Elsberry et al. 2007 ; DeMaria et al. 2014 ). However, although many operational and research centers have made efforts to improve TC intensity

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James D. Doyle, Jonathan R. Moskaitis, Joel W. Feldmeier, Ronald J. Ferek, Mark Beaubien, Michael M. Bell, Daniel L. Cecil, Robert L. Creasey, Patrick Duran, Russell L. Elsberry, William A. Komaromi, John Molinari, David R. Ryglicki, Daniel P. Stern, Christopher S. Velden, Xuguang Wang, Todd Allen, Bradford S. Barrett, Peter G. Black, Jason P. Dunion, Kerry A. Emanuel, Patrick A. Harr, Lee Harrison, Eric A. Hendricks, Derrick Herndon, William Q. Jeffries, Sharanya J. Majumdar, James A. Moore, Zhaoxia Pu, Robert F. Rogers, Elizabeth R. Sanabia, Gregory J. Tripoli, and Da-Lin Zhang

goals for the TCI program to be addressed using the observational dataset collected during the field campaign: understand the coupling of TC outflow with inner-core convection and its implications for intensity change; interpret observations of the finescale horizontal and vertical structure of the outflow layer and inner-core regions of the TC; assess the quantitative impact of assimilating observations in the TC inner core and outflow layer on model forecasts of TC track and intensity; and

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Peter Black, Lee Harrison, Mark Beaubien, Robert Bluth, Roy Woods, Andrew Penny, Robert W. Smith, and James D. Doyle

scales. Thus, observations and sampling strategies for initial condition specification and forecast validation, similar to those employed in past TC field programs, such as, the Coupled Boundary Layer Air–Sea Transfer (CBLAST) experiment during the 2003/04 hurricane season, Tropical Cyclone Structure 2008 (TCS08), and Impact of Typhoons on the Ocean in the Pacific (ITOP) in 2010 ( Black 2012 ; Black et al. 2007 ; D’Asaro et al. 2011 , 2014 ), require continual improvement to match model demands

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