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Tammy M. Weckwerth and David B. Parsons

–150-km-long arcs in radar reflectivity) along a gust front were the preferred locations for surface convergence and for convective development. Deep convection occurred along the gust front only after interaction with the dryline and/or low-level jet. This outflow boundary first propagated as a density current and evolved toward an internal undular bore. Dual-Doppler radar analyses also showed waves generated atop the cold-air outflow (e.g., Mueller and Carbone 1987 ; Weckwerth and Wakimoto 1992

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Clark Evans, Kimberly M. Wood, Sim D. Aberson, Heather M. Archambault, Shawn M. Milrad, Lance F. Bosart, Kristen L. Corbosiero, Christopher A. Davis, João R. Dias Pinto, James Doyle, Chris Fogarty, Thomas J. Galarneau Jr., Christian M. Grams, Kyle S. Griffin, John Gyakum, Robert E. Hart, Naoko Kitabatake, Hilke S. Lentink, Ron McTaggart-Cowan, William Perrie, Julian F. D. Quinting, Carolyn A. Reynolds, Michael Riemer, Elizabeth A. Ritchie, Yujuan Sun, and Fuqing Zhang

), likely due to the lower probability of a TC interacting with the midlatitude flow associated with the climatological poleward retreat of the polar jet in boreal summer. September is also the month in which the greatest percentage of recurving WNP TCs reintensify after becoming extratropical ( Klein et al. 2000 ; Archambault et al. 2013 ). The ET frequency varies both between and within WNP typhoon seasons: it occurs less frequently when the subtropical high is anomalously strong, such that TCs are

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Roland A. Madden and Paul R. Julian

August1962 with near zero precipitation in between. The lowlevel, northward-flowing wind over Kenya had corresponding fluctuations. Although there was some controversy over whether or not the Kenyan winds couldbe used to predict the Indian rainfall, Findlater (1969)argued that these same precipitation changes were inresponse to the changing Somali jet. The fluctuating822 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 1224~ffOIE4O8

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Richard A. Anthes

more) 0.20Areas of indices or parameters related to thunderstorm occurrence Convective instability * Lifted, K indices * Wind shear *Characteristics of featuresMinimum pressure of cyclones +4 mbMaximum speed of jet streaks *Error in position of features (e.g., 'cyclone center)*Band-passed difference fields of conventional

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John Molinari and Michael Dudek

upper level jet streak and diabatic processes that influence the development of a low-level jet and secondary coastal cyclone. Mort. Wea. Rev.. 115, 2227-2261.Willoughby, H. E., H.-L. Jin, S. J. Lord, and J. M. Piotrowicz, 1984: Hurricane structure and evolution as simulated by an axisym metric, nonhydrostatic numerical model. J. Atmos. Sci., 41, 1169-1186.Xu, K. M., 1991: The coupling of cumulus convection with large scale processes. Ph.D. dissertation, Department of Atmospheric

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David M. Schultz

: The pressure jump line. J. Meteor. , 7 , 21 – 29 . Thompson , W. T. , and R. T. Williams , 1997 : Numerical simulations of maritime frontogenesis. J. Atmos. Sci. , 54 , 314 – 331 . Troup , A. J. , 1956 : An aerological study of the “meridional front” in western Australia. Aust. Meteor. Mag. , 14 , 1 – 22 . Uccellini , L. W. , 1980 : On the role of upper tropospheric jet streaks and leeside cyclogenesis in the development of low-level jets in the Great Plains. Mon. Wea

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David M. Schultz and Philip N. Schumacher

, 118–140. Bluestein, H. B., 1986: Fronts and jet streaks: A theoretical perspective. Mesoscale Meteorology and Forecasting, P. S. Ray, Ed., Amer. Meteor. Soc., 173–215. ——, 1993: Synoptic-Dynamic Meteorology in Midlatitudes. Vol. 2, Observations and Theory of Weather Systems. Oxford University Press, 594 pp. Braun, S. A., and R. A. Houze Jr., 1996: The heat budget of a midlatitude squall line and implications for

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Loïk Berre and Gérald Desroziers

and omega balance equations allows for the representation of some effects of the jet dynamics on space and time variations of temperature covariances in particular. Another way to relax the covariance homogeneity assumption is to represent geographical variations of variances while using the homogeneity assumption for correlations. This has been done in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) variational assimilation system, as described in Derber and Bouttier (1999) , by

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Paul M. Markowski

Tornado: Its Structure, Dynamics, Prediction, and Hazards, Geophys. Monogr., No. 79, Amer. Geophys. Union, 319–352 . Bluestein , H. B. , and A. L. Pazmany , 2000 : Observations of tornadoes and other convective phenomena with a mobile, 3-mm wavelength, Doppler radar. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , 81 , 2939 – 2952 . Bluestein , H. B. , and S. G. Gaddy , 2001 : Airborne pseudo-dual-Doppler analysis of a rear-inflow jet and deep convergence zone within a supercell. Mon. Wea. Rev. , 129

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Peter Jan van Leeuwen

particles have very low weights (see Fig. 1 , at t = 20). That means that the statistical information in the ensemble becomes too low to be meaningful. This is called filter degeneracy . It has given importance sampling a low profile until resampling was (re)invented, see later on. In a naive example, van Leeuwen and Evensen (1996) applied importance sampling in a two-layer quasigeostrophic model of the perturbed baroclinic jet with a state dimension of 6400. Unaware of the statistical literature

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