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Jason A. Otkin, Martha C. Anderson, Christopher Hain, Iliana E. Mladenova, Jeffrey B. Basara, and Mark Svoboda

becomes strong after significant damage has already occurred to the vegetation ( Moran 2003 ). A faster response signal of incipient drought stress may be conveyed through remotely sensed maps of land surface temperature (LST), retrieved using satellite-based thermal infrared (TIR) observations ( Anderson et al. 2013 ). As the amount of root zone moisture decreases, less energy is used to evaporate and transpire water, thereby causing canopy temperatures to elevate in comparison with unstressed

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Hongshuo Wang, Jeffrey C. Rogers, and Darla K. Munroe

drought indices when facing the limited retrieval of soil moisture from either remote sensing data (only soil moisture at the surface layer <5 cm) or large uncertainties in soil moisture output from land surface models ( Guo et al. 2004 ). The study may help meteorologists and ecologists to understand and monitor soil moisture and drought in agricultural areas of China. The results suggest a preference to use multiscalar drought indices rather than drought indices from a two-layer bucket model, which

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Hailan Wang, Siegfried Schubert, Randal Koster, Yoo-Geun Ham, and Max Suarez

as well as from some limited simulations with the atmosphere–ocean coupled version of the GEOS-5 model. The discussion and conclusions are provided in section 4 . 2. Model experiments a. Reanalysis The reanalysis data consist of 3-hourly and monthly MERRA ( Rienecker et al. 2011 ) and MERRA-Land data ( Reichle et al. 2011 ; Reichle 2012 ) for the period January 1979–August 2012. The MERRA data are used primarily to describe the atmospheric circulation. Overall, as discussed in Rienecker et al

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Richard Seager, Lisa Goddard, Jennifer Nakamura, Naomi Henderson, and Dong Eun Lee

imposed allowing land surfaces to warm and the atmospheric circulation to adjust to the changes in radiative properties. The other model is the European Centre-Hamburg model, version 4.5 (ECHAM4.5; Roeckner et al. 1996 ), and we use a 24-member ensemble from 1950 on available in the International Research Institute for Climate and Society Data Library ( http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.IRI/.FD/.ECHAM4p5/.History/.MONTHLY/ ). We also use the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis and the Interim European Centre

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Johnna M. Infanti and Ben P. Kirtman

newly formed multi-institutional, multimodel ensemble system for intraseasonal-to-interannual (ISI) prediction, which includes models from nine institutional partners ( Kirtman et al. 2014 ). The choice of this particular set of models is motivated by the availability of phase-1 data and the potential for inclusion of additional fields and improvements to be made with later phases. The NMME system is used in real time by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/Climate Prediction

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Shahrbanou Madadgar and Hamid Moradkhani

( Najafi et al. 2012 ). ESP can also be generated by driving the hydrologic model with the climate forecast. To predict the seasonal flow and generate the ESPs, this study uses the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS; Leavesley et al. 1983 ), which is a distributed-parameter watershed model developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to simulate the effects of various combinations of climate, land use, soil type, etc. on the hydrologic response of the watersheds. The watershed model is

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M. Hoerling, J. Eischeid, A. Kumar, R. Leung, A. Mariotti, K. Mo, S. Schubert, and R. Seager

). These included remote effects of tropical sea surface temperatures, land use practices, and the potential feedbacks that abundant soil-related aerosols may have exerted on rainfall. An important role for random atmospheric internal variability has also been proposed ( Hoerling et al. 2009 ). However, since the 1930s, summer rainfall has shown less severe declines in the 1950s and 1970s, while the last two decades were noted mostly by abundant summer rainfall (e.g., Wang et al. 2009 ). Looking at

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John M. Peters, Christopher J. Nowotarski, and Gretchen L. Mullendore

of supercell updrafts either, and the connection between helical flow in supercell updrafts and entrainment remains purely speculative. Of course, rigorous tests of either of these hypotheses were nearly impossible at the time, since simulations of deep convection only begin to develop a realistic inertial subrange of turbulence when the horizontal grid spacing is less than 250 m (e.g., Lebo and Morrison 2015 ), and computational resources largely precluded the use of grid spacing less than 1 km

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