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Shixuan Zhang, Zhaoxia Pu, and Christopher Velden

-core airborne Doppler radar observations . Geophys. Res. Lett. , 38 , L15810 , https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL048469 . 10.1029/2011GL048469 Zhu , Y. , and Coauthors , 2016 : All-sky microwave radiance assimilation in NCEP’s GSI analysis system . Mon. Wea. Rev. , 144 , 4709 – 4735 , https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0445.1 . 10.1175/MWR-D-15-0445.1

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David R. Ryglicki, Joshua H. Cossuth, Daniel Hodyss, and James D. Doyle

–sea interaction theory for tropical cyclones. Part II: Evolutionary study using a nonhydrostatic axisymmetric numerical model . J. Atmos. Sci. , 44 , 542 – 561 , https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1987)044<0542:AAITFT>2.0.CO;2 . 10.1175/1520-0469(1987)044<0542:AAITFT>2.0.CO;2 Rozoff , C. M. , C. S. Velden , J. Kaplan , J. P. Kossin , and A. J. Wimmers , 2015 : Improvements in the probabilistic prediction of tropical cyclone rapid intensification with passive microwave observations . Wea

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Russell L. Elsberry, Eric A. Hendricks, Christopher S. Velden, Michael M. Bell, Melinda Peng, Eleanor Casas, and Qingyun Zhao

predictions. Oyama (2017) has demonstrated that composites of TC outflows at the cloud tops computed from AMVs can be related to the intensification rates. Oyama et al. (2018) then compare the maximum tangential winds in the outflow estimated from 30-min-interval Himawari-8 target observations with the maximum surface wind evolutions throughout the lifetime of two typhoons and suggest that Himawari-8 AMVs can be used to monitor TC intensification and related structural changes. In this study, a

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David R. Ryglicki, James D. Doyle, Daniel Hodyss, Joshua H. Cossuth, Yi Jin, Kevin C. Viner, and Jerome M. Schmidt

.1175/1520-0469(1987)044<0542:AAITFT>2.0.CO;2 . 10.1175/1520-0469(1987)044<0542:AAITFT>2.0.CO;2 Rozoff , C. M. , C. S. Velden , J. Kaplan , J. P. Kossin , and A. J. Wimmers , 2015 : Improvements in the probabilistic prediction of tropical cyclone rapid intensification with passive microwave observations . Wea. Forecasting , 30 , 1016 – 1038 , https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-14-00109.1 . 10.1175/WAF-D-14-00109.1 Ryglicki , D. R. , and R. E. Hart , 2015 : An investigation of center-finding techniques for

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T. Ghosh and T. N. Krishnamurti

the model forecasts are the sample observations and the average of these forecasts is the sample mean. Another way of looking at this is to regard every model forecast as an estimate of the event to be forecasted, and the simple mean of the results is a standard combination of those estimates. This notion was also expressed in the works of Leslie and Fraedrich (1990) , Mundell and Rupp (1995) , and Goerss (2000) , who examined tropical cyclone track forecasts. These studies show that a

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