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M. Hoerling, J. Eischeid, A. Kumar, R. Leung, A. Mariotti, K. Mo, S. Schubert, and R. Seager

upcoming season. The full information of ensemble prediction systems, in particular the spread information contained in such tools, can thus not be readily incorporated into current practices for U.S. drought forecasting. Further research is also required on evaluating the spread information on drought statistics from such ensemble modeling systems. Much has yet to be learned about the robustness of spreads across multimodels and how those spreads differ when examined in simulation mode (using

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Hailan Wang, Siegfried Schubert, Randal Koster, Yoo-Geun Ham, and Max Suarez

Feng 2012 ; Dai 2013 ) and atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations (e.g., Hoerling and Kumar 2003 ; Schubert et al. 2004a , b ; Seager et al. 2005 ; Wang et al. 2010 ). An important finding from such studies is that ENSO and the PDO in their cold phases, and the AMO in its warm phase, produce a tendency for drought conditions over the United States, with the Pacific playing the dominant role (e.g., Mo et al. 2009 ; Schubert et al. 2009 ). In addition, the impact of SST

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