Search Results

You are looking at 11 - 13 of 13 items for :

  • Operational forecasting x
  • Waves to Weather (W2W) x
  • Monthly Weather Review x
  • Refine by Access: All Content x
Clear All
Christian Euler, Michael Riemer, Tobias Kremer, and Elmar Schömer

. During the simulation, Karl moves northeast and farther away from the boundary. As boundary conditions, as well as initial conditions, we use archived operational analysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. A comparison of the model track and intensity with the best track analysis by the National Hurricane Center (NHC; Pasch and Zelinsky 2016 ) shows that shortly after recurvature, between 1200 UTC 24 September and 0000 UTC 25 September, Karl in the COSMO simulation

Open access
Paolo Ghinassi, Georgios Fragkoulidis, and Volkmar Wirth

bust” for the majority of the operational forecast models, showing a huge drop in the medium-range forecast skill over Europe ( Rodwell et al. 2013 ). The authors associated this poor performance to the misrepresentation of moist convective processes over North America a few days earlier, and this error was subsequently communicated downstream embedded in a RWP. Data are retrieved from the ERA-Interim reanalyses ( Dee et al. 2011 ) with a horizontal resolution of 2° × 2° on 20 pressure levels

Open access
Gabriel Wolf and Volkmar Wirth

wave breaking toward the end of the life cycle resulted in the formation of a cutoff cyclone over Europe, which led to the heavy precipitation event. The rain was poorly forecast by the operational centers even on the relatively short time scale of a few days ( Grazzini and van der Grijn 2002 ). Assuming that large-scale and long-lived dynamical features should generally be predictable on a time scale longer than just a few days, this suggest that there may be room for improvements concerning the

Full access