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Thomas A. Jones
,
Patrick Skinner
,
Kent Knopfmeier
,
Edward Mansell
,
Patrick Minnis
,
Rabindra Palikonda
, and
William Smith Jr.

Wisconsin–Madison, 165 pp. Snook , N. , and M. Xue , 2008 : Effects of microphysical drop size distribution on tornadogenesis in supercell thunderstorms . Geophys. Res. Lett. , 35 , 851 – 854 , https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL035866 . 10.1029/2008GL035866 Sobash , R. A. , G. S. Romine , C. S. Schwartz , D. J. Gagne , and M. L. Weisman , 2016 : Explicit forecasts of low-level rotation from convection-allowing models for next-day tornado prediction . Wea. Forecasting , 31 , 1591 – 1614

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Matthew C. Mahalik
,
Brandon R. Smith
,
Kimberly L. Elmore
,
Darrel M. Kingfield
,
Kiel L. Ortega
, and
Travis M. Smith

. Geophys. Union, 203–221. 10.1029/GM079p0203 Burgess , D. W. , M. A. Magsig , J. Wurman , D. C. Dowell , and Y. Richardson , 2002 : Radar observations of the 3 May 1999 Oklahoma City tornado . Wea. Forecasting , 17 , 456 – 471 , https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(2002)017<0456:ROOTMO>2.0.CO;2 . 10.1175/1520-0434(2002)017<0456:ROOTMO>2.0.CO;2 Burgess , D. W. , E. R. Mansell , C. M. Schwarz , and B. J. Allen , 2010 : Tornado and tornadogenesis events seen by the NOXP X-band, dual

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Eric D. Loken
,
Adam J. Clark
,
Ming Xue
, and
Fanyou Kong

.1175/MWR-D-16-0410.1 Skamarock , W. C. , and Coauthors , 2008 : A description of the Advanced Research WRF version 3. NCAR Tech. Note NCAR/TN-475+STR, 113 pp., https://doi.org/10.5065/D68S4MVH . 10.5065/D68S4MVH Snook , N. , and M. Xue , 2008 : Effects of microphysical drop size distribution on tornadogenesis in supercell thunderstorms . Geophys. Res. Lett. , 35 , L24803 , https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL035866 . 10.1029/2008GL035866 Sobash , R. A. , J. S. Kain , D. R. Bright , A. R. Dean

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Kristopher Bedka
,
Elisa M. Murillo
,
Cameron R. Homeyer
,
Benjamin Scarino
, and
Haiden Mersiovsky

: 25 years of interactive processing . Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , 80 , 271 – 284 , https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1999)080<0271:TMCIDA>2.0.CO;2 . 10.1175/1520-0477(1999)080<0271:TMCIDA>2.0.CO;2 Lemon , L. R. , and C. A. Doswell III , 1979 : Severe thunderstorm evolution and mesocyclone structure as related to tornadogenesis . Mon. Wea. Rev. , 107 , 1184 – 1197 , https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1979)107<1184:STEAMS>2.0.CO;2 . 10.1175/1520-0493(1979)107<1184:STEAMS>2.0.CO;2 Lenz , A

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Ryan Lagerquist
,
Amy McGovern
, and
David John Gagne II

. 2019 ), replacing subgrid-scale parameterizations in a climate model ( Rasp et al. 2018 ), and forecasting tornadogenesis (McGovern et al. 2019, manuscript submitted to Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc .) and large hail ( Gagne et al. 2019 ). Also, Reichstein et al. (2019) and Gil et al. (2019) have recently called for a vast expansion of our efforts to incorporate deep learning into geoscience. Section 2 describes CNNs, our chosen DL model; section 3 describes our input data and preprocessing

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Ryan A. Sobash
,
Craig S. Schwartz
,
Glen S. Romine
, and
Morris L. Weisman

cannot compete. The largest differences between the 3- and 1-km tornado SSPFs occurred on scales between 150 and 300 km. We hypothesize that the peak in 3- and 1-km skill differences on the mesoscale exists since the minimum scales at which CAMs can accurately predict tornadic environments also exists on the mesoscale. Given that storm-scale processes that lead to tornadogenesis are not predictable within the forecast lead time range considered here, producing accurate next-day tornado forecasts with

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Christopher D. Karstens
,
Greg Stumpf
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Chen Ling
,
Lesheng Hua
,
Darrel Kingfield
,
Travis M. Smith
,
James Correia Jr.
,
Kristin Calhoun
,
Kiel Ortega
,
Chris Melick
, and
Lans P. Rothfusz

spatiotemporal approach to tornado prediction. Proc. Int. Joint Conf. on Neural Networks , Montreal, QC, Canada, IEEE , doi: 10.1109/IJCNN.2005.1556125 . Lakshmanan, V. , Hondl K. , and Rabin R. , 2009 : An efficient, general-purpose technique for identifying storm cells in geospatial images . J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol. , 26 , 523 – 537 , doi: 10.1175/2008JTECHA1153.1 . Lee, B. D. , and Wilhelmson R. B. , 1997 : The numerical simulation of non-supercell tornadogenesis. Part I: Initiation and

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Jeffrey C. Snyder
,
Alexander V. Ryzhkov
,
Matthew R. Kumjian
,
Alexander P. Khain
, and
Joseph Picca

water—A new analysis tool . Mon. Wea. Rev. , 100 , 548 – 552 , doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(1972)100<0548:VILWNA>2.3.CO;2 . Houser, J. L. , Bluestein H. B. , and Snyder J. C. , 2015 : Rapid-scan, polarimetric, Doppler radar observations of tornadogenesis and tornado dissipation in a tornadic supercell: The “El Reno, Oklahoma” storm of 24 May 2011 . Mon. Wea. Rev. , 143 , 2685 – 2710 , doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-14-00253.1 . Houze, R. A., Jr. , Rutledge S. A. , Biggerstaff M. I. , and Smull B

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Timothy A. Supinie
,
Nusrat Yussouf
,
Youngsun Jung
,
Ming Xue
,
Jing Cheng
, and
Shizhang Wang

supercell event. The radar observations are assimilated every 5 min for a 45-min-long assimilation period prior to tornadogenesis, and 1-h ensemble forecasts are launched after 15, 30, and 45 min of radar DA. The goal is to see if the findings from the OSSE study of Yussouf and Stensrud (2010) hold true in a realistic mesoscale environment using real radar observations. The rest of this paper is organized as follows. A brief description of the supercell event is documented in section 2 . Section 3

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Keith D. Sherburn
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Matthew D. Parker
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Jessica R. King
, and
Gary M. Lackmann

updrafts in low-buoyancy, highly sheared environments . Mon. Wea. Rev. , 128 , 449 – 461 , doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(2000)128<0449:SOORUI>2.0.CO;2 . Markowski, P. M. , and Richardson Y. P. , 2014 : The influence of environmental low-level shear and cold pools on tornadogenesis: Insights from idealized simulations . J. Atmos. Sci. , 71 , 243 – 275 , doi: 10.1175/JAS-D-13-0159.1 . McAvoy, B. P. , Jones W. A. , and Moore P. D. , 2000 : Investigation of an unusual storm structure associated

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