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Anthony G. Barnston, Nicolas Vigaud, Lindsey N. Long, Michael K. Tippett, and Jae-Kyung E. Schemm

still needs a more convincing demonstration in the observations and/or the model, and we return to Table 4 . Table 4. (top) Location key of seven geographical subsectors. (bottom) The percentage of the average over the eight MJO phases, of ACE in (left) observations and (right) in the T382 CFS model, by the MJO phase for each of the seven geographical subsectors in the North Atlantic. The average entry for any subsector, over the 8 phases, is 100. The location of the cells within each table

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Lukas Papritz and Stephan Pfahl

Pole of the rotated model grid is located at 15°N and 155°W in geographical coordinates. In addition, we run the model in the so-called climate mode, allowing for continuous updates of sea surface temperature (SST) from the 6-hourly analyses. The model domain and topography are depicted in Fig. 2 . The domain consists of 1100 × 740 grid points and covers the RS and the ABS, as well as parts of the Transantarctic Mountains, the Ross Ice Shelf, and Marie Byrd Land (see Fig. 2 for location names

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Clémence Macron, Yves Richard, Thomas Garot, Miloud Bessafi, Benjamin Pohl, Adolphe Ratiarison, and Andrianaharimanana Razafindrabe

. Fig . 1. (a) Location of the 37 daily rainfall stations and percentage of missing values. The dot size is proportional to the percentage of missing values (stations with fewer missing values are larger); the colors also represent the percentage of missing values (see color scale for legend). Names cited in the text appear in red for stations, in blue for ocean sectors, and in brown for mountains. (b) Temporal distribution of the missing values for each of the 37 stations for NDJF 1971–99. (c) Mean

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Chung-Chieh Wang, George Tai-Jen Chen, and Kuok-Hou Ho

described later in sections 4c and 5 , followed by the related diagnostic results. 3. Synoptic environment and frontal retreat In this section, the retreat of the mei-yu front and the accompanied synoptic evolution in the present case are described. In Fig. 1 , manually analyzed surface weather maps near Taiwan during the case period, produced operationally by the Central Weather Bureau, are shown to depict the general frontal locations. At 0600 UTC 13 June ( Fig. 1a ), the front had already passed

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Prabhani Kuruppumullage Don, Jenni L. Evans, Francesca Chiaromonte, and Alex M. Kowaleski

= magenta, 3 = dark blue, 4 = cyan, and 5 = green). As an example, consider the IFS forecasts initialized at 0000 UTC 16 September, ( Fig. 7d ); at this time, Sinlaku was located northeast of Taiwan and was drifting to the east as a 45-kt (23 m s −1 ) tropical storm ( Fig. 2a , location 5 in the Philippine Sea). In the red mean trajectory (westernmost cluster), Sinlaku moves farthest to the north, staying west of Kyushu and moving into the Sea of Japan before making landfall in northwest Honshu. In the

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Greg Seroka, Travis Miles, Yi Xu, Josh Kohut, Oscar Schofield, and Scott Glenn

observed cold wake, as well as specific timing and location of the ocean cooling relative to the TC core. In the 2000s, studies began to provide observational and model evidence that significant portions of this surface ocean cooling can occur ahead of the hurricane eye center (e.g., D’Asaro 2003 ; Jacob and Shay 2003 ; Jaimes and Shay 2009 ), proposing that such cooling is especially important for hurricane intensity. Even today, the bulk of research efforts have investigated deep ocean processes

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Craig S. Schwartz and Ryan A. Sobash

threshold, both forecasts underpredicted over the MRB metaregion ( Fig. 4j ), while coverages over the Plains and East metaregions were noisy due to small sample sizes, but nonetheless broadly consistent with observations ( Figs. 4e,o ). b. Precipitation entity size To further understand geographic variations of areal coverage behaviors during spring and summer, using identical methods as K08 , we examined sizes of precipitation “entities”, where entity size was defined as the area of a collection of

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Johannes M. L. Dahl, Hartmut Höller, and Ulrich Schumann

area: where r e is the earth’s radius and A k is the plate area of the k th cell. Gauss weighting is applied to reduce the lightning occurrence toward the edge of the cell: Here, r i is the angular distance in degrees of the i th discharge from the cell centroid, R k is the plate radius (also expressed as angular distance), and with σ = 0.4 n k . Figure 2 shows how lightning locations are distributed around a centroid position located at the geographical coordinates ( λ , ϕ ) = (0

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Sarah F. Kew, Michael Sprenger, and Huw C. Davies

anomalies are notable for their amplitude, number, spatial coherence, and distinctive horizontal and vertical spatial scales. The nature of the possible impact of the anomalies upon the dynamics of the tropospheric and stratospheric flow will depend upon the aforementioned factors, and also upon the location of the anomalies relative to the stratosphere–troposphere interface. In this context, we comment on four possible dynamic effects of the anomalies. First note that some anomalies (labeled J 1

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Jason E. Nachamkin, Sue Chen, and Jerome Schmidt

imperfect observations is one of the greatest challenges to mesoscale verification. Ebert and McBride (2000) , Bullock et al. (2004) , and Sandgathe and Heiss (2004) approach the problem with techniques that match the forecasts to the observations using methods related to those of Hoffman et al. (1995) . Ebert and McBride (2000) consider mesoscale rain areas as contiguous entities and collect statistics regarding the placement, volumetric, and pattern errors. Sandgathe and Heiss (2004) approach

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