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J. Marshall Shepherd and Steven J. Burian

. Geophys. Res. Lett 28 : 2597 – 2600 . Orville , R. E. , R. Zhang , J. N. Gammon , D. Collins , B. Ely , and S. Steiger . 2002 . Houston Environmental Aerosol Project: Scientific Overview and Operational Plan for HEAT-2004/2005. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, 58 pp . Pielke , R. A. and M. Segal . 1986 . Mesoscale circulations forced by differential terrain heating, in Mesoscale Meteorology and Forecasting ,. edited by

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N. S. Oakley, J. T. Lancaster, B. J. Hatchett, J. Stock, F. M. Ralph, S. Roj, and S. Lukashov

landslides in excessively well-drained soils may have little dependence on antecedent rainfall. The existence of storms where multiple triggering thresholds are met multiple times highlights the need for accurate forecasting of these storms and hourly to subhourly precipitation intensity and duration, a capability that is currently emerging in operational numerical weather modeling. Permanent soil moisture sensors are limited in California, yet they are a necessary tool for forecasting landslide activity

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Hal F. Needham and Barry D. Keim

southwestern Florida as a category 4 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of approximately 241 km h −1 (130 kt), the peak surge level observed in this storm was only 2.13 m at Sanibel and Estero Islands ( Pasch et al. 2011 ). A storm tide at Fort Myers Beach was measured at 2.87 m above the National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929, but this observation was not adjusted for tides or datum ( Wang et al. 2005 ). All of these observations were noticeably lower than the forecasted levels of 3.05–4.57 m

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Daniel Brown and Gerhard Reuter

/07/29/hailstorm-a-year-later-it-can-happen-again-2 . Dixon , P. G. , and T. L. Mote , 2003 : Patterns and causes of Atlanta’s urban heat island–initiated precipitation . J. Appl. Meteor. , 42 , 1273 – 1284 , https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(2003)042<1273:PACOAU>2.0.CO;2 . 10.1175/1520-0450(2003)042<1273:PACOAU>2.0.CO;2 Elmore , K. L. , D. J. Stensrud , and K. C. Crawford , 2002 : Explicit cloud-scale models for operational forecasts: A note of caution . Wea. Forecasting , 17 , 873 – 884

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Alex C. Ruane and John O. Roads

reanalyses of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Spectral Model (GSM) to the CEOP model archive, each with extensive diagnostic variables that allow a detailed examination of the water and energy budgets at all levels of the atmosphere. Augmented 6-h forecasts were initialized 4 times each day (at 0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC) during the CEOP period for the NCEP–Department of Energy Reanalysis-2 (RII; Kanamitsu et al. 2002b ) as well as the Seasonal Forecast Model (SFM

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Alex C. Ruane and John O. Roads

Experimental Climate Prediction Center (ECPC) to the Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period (CEOP, now called the Coordinated Energy and Water Cycle Observations Project; Koike 2004 ; Lawford et al. 2006 ), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)–Department of Energy Reanalysis-2 (R2; Kanamitsu et al. 2002b ) and a corresponding enhanced reanalysis using the NCEP–ECPC Seasonal Forecast Model (SFM; Kanamitsu et al. 2002a ) in place of the R2 model were produced for the 2002–04 CEOP

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Christopher Small

, according to most forecasts, until at least the year 2100 ( O'Neill and Balk, 2001 ). At the same time, widespread urbanization has the effect of concentrating the growing population into dense settlements at unprecedented rates ( Meyer and Turner, 1992 ). Near-term (<50 yr) population growth is expected to occur primarily in moderate-sized urban areas of developing countries maintaining high birth rates ( United Nations, 2001 ). This represents a relatively recent change of physical habitat for humans

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Walter N. Meier, James A. Maslanik, Charles W. Fowler, and Jeffrey R. Key

of the cloud-detection steps, and algorithm assumptions, as well as differences in the types of in situ data used. In another comparison, the AVHRR-derived skin temperatures correspond reasonably closely to surface air temperatures provided by meteorological forecast models [National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalyses ( Kalnay et al., 1996 ) ( Table 1 and Figure 7a ); European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ( Figure 7b )], and interpolated air temperatures

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R. Tokmakian

the eastern North Pacific. Near-real-time measurements of satellite-derived SST [the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) operational satellites; Smith et al., 1996] and altimetric-derived [TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P) and the European Remote Sensing (ERS) satellites; Koblinsky et al., 1998] SSH anomaly (SSH′, i.e., the sea surface's deviation from a 9+ yr mean) measurements are used in combination to create a proxy heat content

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M. Sekhar, M. Shindekar, Sat K. Tomer, and P. Goswami

(RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and correlation were computed. Figure 10a shows the RMSE, MAE, and correlation for the all the GCMs. Based on the figure, the GCMs can be classified into two categories: showing relatively better and poor behavior with the measured rainfall. Worldwide, the skill of GCMs at forecasting time- and space-averaged rainfall, like all-India seasonal precipitation, is quite poor and the skill decreases as the spatial scale is reduced to single station. Thus, GCM

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