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Chih-Chiang Wei

floods (Typhoons Zeb in 1998 and Nari in 2001) at the Shihmen Reservoir watershed. 2. Statistical and numerical approaches In recent years, statistical and numerical approaches have been successfully applied to typhoon precipitation prediction. For the statistical approaches, Yeh (2002) used empirical orthogonal function analysis including the climatology average method, deviation persistence method, and regression equations to forecast the 6-h accumulated typhoon rainfall over Taiwan. Lee et al

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Jaret W. Rogers, Ariel E. Cohen, and Lee B. Carlaw

the present study will incorporate numerous sounding-based variables and examine their relationship with total lightning count and severe thunderstorm reports, using soundings from Phoenix (KPSR; hereafter, PHX) and Tucson (KTWC; hereafter, TUS), Arizona. Application of a stepwise, multiple linear regression technique also is explored to determine the predictability of 24-h lightning counts and severe reports based on 1200 UTC soundings. Gridded RAP-based objective analysis environmental data

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Michaël Zamo, Liliane Bel, Olivier Mestre, and Joël Stein

opportunity to generate more accurate analyses. The interpolation strategy described in this study has been selected among 48 strategies after an intercomparison led at Météo-France (not shown here). The 48 interpolation strategies varied in their interpolation functions, the information used, and their modeling of the spatial dependence. The second step is to build the best MOS using the new analysis. For that aim, two regression methods are compared. Both are trained by pooling together the data at

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Tomasz J. Glowacki, Yi Xiao, and Peter Steinle

1. Introduction Over the last few years a high-resolution, high-frequency Mesoscale Surface Analysis System (MSAS) has been developed at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (hereafter shortened to the Bureau), and became operational in September 2007. The aim of MSAS is to generate real-time, best-possible, gridded, high-resolution surface analyses of weather parameters. At present, analyses of mean sea level pressure (MSLP), 2-m temperature (T2), 2-m dewpoint temperature (D2), and 10-m wind

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Patrick J. Fitzpatrick

attempts ( Fitzpatrick 1996 ). It is the prospect of more such dangerous situations that motivates this paper, which describes a new multiple regression scheme for TC intensity change. Developed on western North Pacific data, this statistical analysis yields an intensity forecast scheme, which may be used as guidance in real-time operations, and also generates understanding about TC intensity change. c. Previous TC intensification research Theoretical intensity change work concentrates on three areas

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Robert V. Rohli, S. A. Hsu, Brian W. Blanchard, and R. L. Fontenot

region of the United States under the revised EPA thresholds. Several attempts to model ozone concentration using regression techniques (e.g., Comrie 1997 ; Hubbard and Cobourn 1998 ; Chaloulakou et al. 1999 ; Draxler 2000 ; Ryan et al. 2000 ), neural networks (e.g., Comrie 1997 ; Soja and Soja 1999 ; Spellman 1999 ), three-dimensional transport and dispersion models (e.g., Draxler 2000 ), and airmass-based trajectory analysis (e.g., Comrie 1994 ; Cobourn and Hubbard 1999 ) have been

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Robert R. Gillies, Shih-Yu Wang, Jin-Ho Yoon, and Scott Weaver

analysis for the inversion frequency and PM2.5 concentrations. The composite was made of eight phases that evenly divide the Z 30d “index cycle,” following Knutson and Weickmann (1987) . The selection of this 20–40-day spectrum is due to the fact that the North American circulation seems to respond only to the high-frequency end (∼30 days) of the MJO ( GWB ), corresponding to previous findings (e.g., Mo and Nogues-Paegle 2005 ) that the tropical–extratropical linkages of the MJO are most sensitive

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Chad Shouquan Cheng, Heather Auld, Guilong Li, Joan Klaassen, Bryan Tugwood, and Qian Li

prediction of freezing rain events. The objective of this study, therefore, was to develop a new method—a quantitative, automated synoptic typing—to assess and predict air masses or weather types most highly associated historically with freezing rain events. Within-synoptic-type logistic regression analysis was applied to predict the likelihood of freezing rain occurrence for the study area. 2. Data sources and treatment Hourly surface meteorological data for Ottawa International Airport were retrieved

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Mark DeMaria and John Kaplan

synoptic predictors are evaluated from the initial analysis of the aviation run of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Medium Range Forecast model (hereafter, the aviation model). DK94 presented results from a jackknife procedure (where each storm was removed from the developmental sample, and the regression coefficients rederived), which suggested that SHIPS could improve upon SHIFOR by 10%–15%. The version of SHIPS described by DK94 was run in near–real time during the 1993

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Ting Ding and Zongjian Ke

Andersen 2005 ). In recent years, many statistical methods have been used in statistical downscaling predictions, such as multiple linear regression (MLR), optimal subset regression (OSR), partial least squares regression, singular value decomposition, canonical correlation analysis, classification and regression trees, and neural networks ( von Storch et al. 1993 ; Zorita and von Storch 1999 ; Landman and Tennant 2000 ; Widmann et al. 2003 ; Kostopoulou et al. 2007 ; Ke et al. 2009 ; Wei and

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