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Richard L. Collins, Susan P. Warner, Cameron M. Martus, Jennifer L. Moss, Ketsiri Leelasaskultum, and Reynir C. Winnan

. Weather and Climate of Alaska (course ATM101X) is a four-credit freshman-level undergraduate class that meets core laboratory science requirements for bachelors’ and associates’ degrees at the University of Alaska Fairbanks. Since 2012, Weather and Climate of Alaska has been taught using distance techniques and active learning methods that allow students to base their understanding on weather they have experienced and to present their work as local experts. The students present their studies to the

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G. L. Darkow, V. E. Suomi, and P. M. Kuhn

A tornado-forecast tool based on surface thermal patterns is presented. The procedures and results of an operational test of this forecast tool are presented. The results of this test are evaluated and suggestions made for using this additional simple tool in conjunction with existing tornado forecasting techniques.

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Myron K. Cox

Thunderstorms and associated weather in the region of Eastern Virginia are discussed, and a semi-objective technique is presented for forecasting the phenomena. A new stability value is presented as a convective forecasting facility. The forecast method herein described had an overall verification probability with dependent and independent data of 0.88 and 0.92, respectively.

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Ryohei Misumi, Yoshinori Shoji, Kazuo Saito, Hiromu Seko, Naoko Seino, Shin-ichi Suzuki, Yukari Shusse, Kohin Hirano, Stéphane Bélair, V. Chandrasekar, Dong-In Lee, Augusto Jose Pereira Filho, Tsuyoshi Nakatani, and Masayuki Maki

breezes and synoptic disturbances, and by the heated topography. TOMACS originally began as a domestic research project in Japan as part of a collaboration between 25 organizations including universities, research institutes, local governments, and private companies. The original goals of TOMACS were as follows: elucidation of the mechanisms behind LHIW in urban areas (e.g., torrential rain, flash floods, strong winds, and lightning), improving nowcasting and forecasting techniques for LHIW, and

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Thorwald H. M. Stein, Robin J. Hogan, Peter A. Clark, Carol E. Halliwell, Kirsty E. Hanley, Humphrey W. Lean, John C. Nicol, and Robert S. Plant

their evolution, are important to forecast accurately. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are now run at convection-permitting resolutions at several operational forecasting centers. For instance, the Met Office runs its forecast model at a 1.5-km grid length and the German weather service runs its model at a 2.8-km grid length ( Baldauf et al. 2011 ). At these resolutions, models are run without a convection parameterization, which improves the representation of mesoscale convective systems

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Shu-peng Ho, Richard A. Anthes, Chi O. Ao, Sean Healy, Andras Horanyi, Douglas Hunt, Anthony J. Mannucci, Nicholas Pedatella, William J. Randel, Adrian Simmons, Andrea Steiner, Feiqin Xie, Xinan Yue, and Zhen Zeng

Operational Satellite Program (MetOp) A/B, GRACE-A , TerraSAR-X (TSX) , Communications/Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) , TerraSAR-X Add-On for Digital Elevation Measurement (TanDEM-X) , Fengyun-3C (FY-3C) , and Korea Multi-Purpose Satellite-5 (KOMPSAT-5) in near–real time (NRT) have compensated for some of the loss; however, the total number of RO observations available in NRT by the end of 2018 was about 1,700, down from a maximum of over 3,500 in 2007–09. F ig . 1. Number of RO

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John R. Gerhardt and William E. Gordon

The propagation of radio waves above about 30 megacycles is seriously affected by certain weather phenomena. The meteorological aspects of this effect for a particular case are considered and a forecasting technique proposed.

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Herbert S. Appleman

Evidence is presented to show that the form of the Heidke skill score commonly used to evaluate forecast procedures is not reliable for the purpose for which it is intended. This is primarily because the standard against which the forecast accuracy is tested is not a true standard, since it is a function of the forecasts issued. Thus, even when applied to the same representative set of data, it is entirely possible for one skilled forecast technique to have a higher skill score but a lower forecast accuracy than a second skilled technique or an unskilled technique. A new skill score is proposed which retains the useful characteristics of the common skill score without its drawbacks. Finally, some brief comments are made regarding the weighting of data in a contingency table to obtain operationally more useful skill scores.

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Major Hugh W. Ellsaesser

Errors in prognostic winds at standard pressure levels from 700 to 100 mb are investigated. Errors resulting from the use of conventional forecasting techniques (excluding Numerical Weather Prediction), persistence and climatology are compared and inherent errors due to operational techniques are discussed. Both published and manuscript data from American and British sources are used.

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Nathan Yacowar, Louis Garand, and Michel Houde

Sunshine data are received daily on a real time basis at the Quebec Forecast Office and are converted into terms of percent of possible sunshine. On the basis of a survey held in the Quebec Forecast Office, the percent of possible sunshine was associated with the plain language expressions used to describe sky cover. Using this relationship, it was possible to use these observed sunshine reports to objectively verify the worded forecasts of sky cover. Techniques are being developed to forecast the percent of possible sunshine to be used as guidance in our public forecasts.

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