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Nathan Snook, Ming Xue, and Youngsun Jung

would allow entities such as hospitals and stadiums sufficient time to respond in the event of a warning ( Stensrud et al. 2009 ). To achieve this goal, reliable short-term (0–3 h) forecasts at the convective scale will be vital. Because of the chaotic nature of the atmosphere, and inevitable errors in observations and NWP models, weather forecasts always contain uncertainty. No forecast is therefore complete without a description of its uncertainty ( NRC 2006 ), which is often expressed in terms of

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Bernhard Lettau

SummerMonsoon," presented at the 5th Technical Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 20-28 November, 1967, Caracas,Venezuela.210MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEWVOLUME 102(b)(c)Fro. 1. The geographical distribution of observed xvesterly wind components at 900 mb (shaded) and 850 mb (solid line), a) January, b) April, c) July, d) October.order-of-magnitude calculations, indicating however should be sufficient to delineate the regions of equatorialthat even the spotty

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I. Szunyogh and Z. Toth

, it has the advantage that persistent, slowly varying error patterns can be detected in the ensemble. This particular 30-day period, overlapping with the 1999 Winter Storm Reconnaissance program, was selected because a large number of diagnostics prepared for an earlier study ( Szunyogh et al. 2000 ) were already available. Here, we show only eddy statistics that are crucial to exploring the relationship between the location of the storm tracks and the geographical distribution of forecast error

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Ngar-Cheung Lau and Mary Jo Nath

ofreproducing the frequency and geographical dependence of the principal modes of variability in the NorthernHemisphere wintertime circulation.1. Introduction The strong dependence of the nature of atmosphericvariability on geographical location and on time scalehas long been recognized. Klein (1951) has documentedthe standard deviations and lagged autocorrelations ofpressure fluctuations on daily' time scales, and notedthat the spatial patterns of such statistics in the WesternHemisphere are dominated

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John M. Brown and Kevin R. Knupp

. In view of thespatial and temporal continuity of the damage andthe eyewitness observations, we believe it mostlikely that T3 formed as a debris whirl near location GW at about 1436 CST (based on its positionrelative to T2) and traveled northeast, then north,as a continuous entity until a condensation funnel'began to form near location WC (.Figs. 8 and 10). Based on their independent survey and analysis,Fujitaa and Fujita and Forbes (1979, personal communication) concluded that a small cyclonic

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maximum latitude reached by theisobars or contours. Axes of maximum contour curvaturewere not considered because they are difficult to locateand frequently coincide with ridge or trough lines definedin the objective manner given above.GEOGRAPHICAL FREQUENCY OF RIDGES ANDTROUGHSThe preliminary phase of this project consisted of atabulation of the location of all mean ridges and troughs(as defined above) observed during the winter months ofthe past 20 years. This study was limited to the Atlantic

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Ross N. Hoffman

single entity although it is specified asa product in (2). Horizontal derivatives at the poleswhich are needed to evaluate SVEL and $DVN, requirespecial treatment. However, this is not of directinterest since Seasat did not make observations nearthe poles. Horizontal interpolation of u and v from theanalysis grid to data locations is needed to evaluate1836 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW

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Olli M. Turpeinen, Azzouz Abidi, and Wahid Belhouane

, however, based on the individual tracking of cloud entities throughout theirlifetimes, which requires substantial computing resources. Therefore, they are feasible for use only inderiving rainfall estimates over limited areas and timeperiods. The scheme has to be relatively simple if thecoverage is semi-global and the sampling is made frequently for a long period of time. The approach proposed by Arkin (1979) constitutes a feasible solutionfor the global scale. He has shown that the fractionalcloud

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new weakcenter formed farther southward in the northwesternThis was Delta, a 1013-mb Low. Delta's subsequent path,together with the surface synoptic situation for 0030 GMTmid-troposphere, iswell suited t.o present the large scaledescribing the atmospheric processes occurring before andduring the period of primary interest.appeared as a separate entity in the vicinity of 35 W.longitude through cyclogenesis in the southern portion of0300 GMT map of September 6, 1953. This Low drifted the system 36

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Michael S. Fischer, Brian H. Tang, and Kristen L. Corbosiero

significantly more westward than non-RI episodes in the corresponding cluster, although no significant differences in the locations of RI and non-RI episodes were found in the cutoff cluster. Fig . 7. Geographic locations of the 850-hPa relative vorticity centroids for RI episodes (red) and non-RI episodes (blue) for high-PV TCs within the (a) cutoff cluster, (b) NW trough cluster, and (c) NE trough cluster. 5. The relationship between upper-tropospheric trough structure and RI The upper-tropospheric trough

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