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Rüdiger Hewer, Petra Friederichs, Andreas Hense, and Martin Schlather

used to interpolate fields. To exemplify the multivariate GRF, we estimated its parameters for atmospheric fields of the numerical ensemble weather prediction system, COSMO-DE-EPS ( Gebhardt et al. 2011 ), provided by the German Meteorological Service (DWD). COSMO-DE is a high-resolution forecast system that provides forecasts on the atmospheric mesoscale ( Baldauf et al. 2011 ). Estimation is realized using the maximum likelihood method, while uncertainty in the parameter estimation is assessed by

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R. E. Carbone, J. D. Tuttle, D. A. Ahijevych, and S. B. Trier

48-h range might be substantially improved through the combined use of dynamical and statistical methods. Antecedent convection and its observed propagation routinely place narrow bounds on the future meridional position of heavy precipitation episodes, up to 48-h range. Dynamical forecast models routinely identify the latitudinal bands of mesoscale ascent and the associated production of thermodynamic instability (e.g., Laing and Fritsch 2000 ). The combined strengths of meridional prediction

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Junhong Wei and Fuqing Zhang

, 1003 , doi:10.1029/2001RG000106 . Gill , A. E. , 1982 : Atmosphere–Ocean Dynamics. Academic Press, 488 pp . Holton , J. R. , P. H. Haynes , M. E. McIntyre , A. R. Douglass , R. B. Road , and L. Pfister , 1995 : Stratosphere–troposphere exchange . Rev. Geophys. , 33 , 403 – 439 . Hooke , W. H. , 1986 : Gravity waves. Mesoscale Meteorology and Forecasting, P. S. Ray, Ed., Amer. Meteor. Soc., 272–288 pp . Jewett , B. F. , M. K. Ramamurthy , and R. M. Rauber

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Xiaolei Zou and Qingnong Xiao

the Penn State–NCAR Mesoscale Model: Validation tests and simulation of an Atlantic cyclone and cold front. Mon. Wea. Rev., 121, 1493–1513. Dvorak, V., and H. M. Mogil, 1994: Tropical cyclone motion forecasting using satellite water vapor imagery. NOAA Tech. Rep. NESDIS 83, 42 pp. [Available from NOAA/NESDIS, 5200 Auth Rd., Washington, DC 20233.] . Fujita, T., 1952: Pressure distribution within a typhoon. Geophys. Mag., 23, 437–451. Grell, G. A., J. Dudhia, and D. R. Stauffer, 1994

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K. J. Tory, M. T. Montgomery, and N. E. Davidson

1. Introduction As part of the ongoing development of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s tropical cyclone (TC) version of the Limited Area Prediction System (LAPS), a detailed investigation of the TC life cycle in TC-LAPS is in progress. Clearly one of the most important aspects of the TC forecast is genesis; that is, whether a TC will develop in the forecast area or not. Before improvements can be made to the prediction system it is necessary to develop a basic understanding of genesis in

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Chun-Chieh Wu, Jan-Huey Chen, Po-Hsiung Lin, and Kun-Hsuan Chou

the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5; Zou et al. 1997 ; Wu et al. 2006 ), which was used by Kleist and Morgan (2005a) to investigate a snowstorm with a poor forecast. This system includes the nonlinear MM5, its tangent linear model (TLM), and corresponding dry-physics adjoint model. The domain for the nonlinear and adjoint models we use is a 60-km, 85 × 115 (latitude by longitude) horizontal grid, with 20 sigma

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A. E. MacDonald, J. L. Lee, and Y. Xie

to mesoscale weather prediction has culminated in the development of a quasi-nonhydrostatic model called QNH, which will soon be used for real-time forecasting. In this paper, we discuss the theory and how it relates to mesoscale weather prediction. In another paper ( MacDonald et al. 2000 ), the design of the model and a test program are presented. A third related paper ( Lee and MacDonald 2000 ) presents the initialization method prescribed by the theory and used in the model; the bounded

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Richard Rotunno, Glen S. Romine, and Howard B. Bluestein

. (2018) found that such hodographs computed from observations at 10 m (considered the “surface”) exhibit counterclockwise turning; moreover, mesoscale-model forecasts averaged over the warm season of 2016 show the same feature. Analysis of the mesoscale-model hodographs some distance above the surface show the expected clockwise turning. The present study shows that an extension of the SFR model of diurnally varying boundary layer winds over sloping terrain to include a semislip (instead of a “no

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Adam V. Rydbeck, Eric D. Maloney, and Ghassan J. Alaka Jr.

Maloney (2014) suggested that a finite-amplitude disturbance could develop into a robust EPAC EW in approximately 1.5–2.5 days from barotropic and perturbation available potential energy to perturbation kinetic energy conversions. Velasco and Fritsch (1987) noted a direct relationship between several EPAC tropical cyclogenesis occurrences and mesoscale convective vortices associated with mesoscale convective complexes originating over South America. To provide another example, TC Elida formed in the

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Matthew F. Garvert, Bradley Smull, and Cliff Mass

. T. , T. Clark , and W. D. Hall , 1994 : Interactions between topopgraphic airflow and cloud/precipitation development during passage of a winter storm in Arizona. J. Atmos. Sci. , 51 , 275 – 285 . Cairns , M. M. , and J. Corey , 2003 : Mesoscale model simulations of high-wind events in the complex terrain of western Nevada. Wea. Forecasting , 18 , 249 – 263 . Colle , B. , 2004 : Sensitivity of orographic precipitation to changing ambient conditions and terrain geometries

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