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Matthieu Chevallier, David Salas y Mélia, Aurore Voldoire, Michel Déqué, and Gilles Garric

1. Introduction Within the last few years, the shrinking summer Arctic sea ice cover has awakened interest in obtaining seasonal outlooks of the sea ice cover. Such outlooks are intended to give valuable information, for example, on marine accessibility of maritime routes or on the duration of the ice-free season in the marginal ice zones. Only a few institutions produce sea ice predictions using a coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM), although such models are becoming the

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Mitchell Bushuk, Xiaosong Yang, Michael Winton, Rym Msadek, Matthew Harrison, Anthony Rosati, and Rich Gudgel

seasonal sea ice predictions in the Barents Sea. The sea ice cover in the Barents Sea is a dominant contributor to winter Arctic sea ice variability and trends ( Cavalieri and Parkinson 2012 ) and influences local economic activity such as fisheries, shipping, and natural resource industries ( Jung et al. 2016 ). These factors have motivated a need for accurate seasonal sea ice predictions in this region. A number of recent studies, using both statistical methods ( Schlichtholz 2011 ; Onarheim et al

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Gary Grunseich and Bin Wang

1. Introduction Changes in sea ice coverage have widespread influences on global ocean ( Holland et al. 2001 ) and atmospheric circulation from seasonal to decadal time scales. Influences of spring Arctic sea ice on the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM; Guo et al. 2014 ), and the autumn sea ice in different regions of the Arctic on the strength of the winter Asian monsoon ( Chen et al. 2014 ; Mori et al. 2014 ) have been identified. The decline of sea ice extent starting in the late twentieth

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Achim Stössel

1. Introduction It is a major challenge for sea ice–ocean general circulation models (GCMs) to arrive at a reasonable simulation of Southern Ocean sea ice simultaneously with long-term global deep-ocean properties and circulation. This applies to coupled atmosphere–ice–ocean GCMs (e.g., Holland and Raphael 2006 ; Bitz et al. 2005 ; Ogura et al. 2004 ; Jungclaus et al. 2005 ) as much as to ice–ocean GCMs that are forced by atmospheric variables (e.g., Goosse and Fichefet 1999 ; Timmermann

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James W. Hurrell, James J. Hack, Dennis Shea, Julie M. Caron, and James Rosinski

.0) was released in June 2004, and the release included complete collections of component model source code, documentation, and input data, as well as model output from several experiments. The purpose of this note is to document the global sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration (SIC) boundary dataset that has been developed specifically for uncoupled simulations with present and future versions of CAM. Perhaps the most important field in climate system modeling is SST. A significant

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Ryan Eastman and Stephen G. Warren

1. Introduction Arctic climate has changed dramatically in the past two decades. End-of-summer sea ice extent has declined and reached surprisingly small values in 2007 and 2008 ( Stroeve et al. 2008 ; Comiso et al. 2008 ). Shrinking ice cover has been accompanied by an increase in surface air temperature (SAT) of almost 0.5°C decade −1 from 1979 through 2003, as observed by the International Arctic Buoy Programme ( Rigor et al. 2000 ). Clouds are thought to have an important role in the

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Zhaomin Wang, John Turner, Yang Wu, and Chengyan Liu

1. Introduction During 2014–16 Antarctic sea ice retreated at an unprecedented rate with total sea ice extent (SIE) reaching a record low level in spring 2016 ( Fig. 1 ). This was unexpected, as there had been a small but significant upward trend in total Antarctic SIE since 1978 ( Comiso and Nishio 2008 ; Turner et al. 2009 ; Parkinson and Cavalieri 2012 ), with record high daily extents being observed in September 2012 ( Turner et al. 2013 ), 2013 ( Reid et al. 2015 ), and 2014 ( Fetterer

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Zhuo Wang, John Walsh, Sarah Szymborski, and Melinda Peng

1. Introduction The recent decrease of Arctic sea ice coverage is one of the most striking indicators of global environmental change. The Arctic sea ice extent in September, as assessed from satellite observations, has changed significantly, with the pan-Arctic extent in each of the past 13 Septembers (2007–19) all lower than in any years of the earlier satellite era (1979–2006; NSIDC 2018 ). The Arctic is expected to become essentially ice-free during summer by about midcentury ( Notz and

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Impacts of Oceanic and Atmospheric Heat Transports on Sea Ice Extent

Jake Aylmer, David Ferreira, and Daniel Feltham

1. Introduction Sea ice is a major component of the climate system, influencing it through its enhanced surface reflectivity compared to the ocean, insulation of the oceans, and role in the thermohaline circulation (e.g., Barry et al. 1993 ). Current and projected loss of Arctic sea ice affects the climate on the global scale, mediated via changes to the atmosphere and ocean circulation ( Budikova 2009 ; Vihma 2014 ; Tomas et al. 2016 ). Antarctic sea ice variability is linked to large

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A. Levermann, J. Mignot, S. Nawrath, and S. Rahmstorf

buoyancy flux because of their impact on deep-water formation. Saenko et al. (2004) examine the role of northern sea ice cover for the overturning circulation during global warming experiments by altering the thermal diffusion coefficient in their atmospheric energy–moisture balance model, thereby producing varying temperature and sea ice extent in northern high latitudes. Their main conclusion is that the initial climate around the subpolar gyre is crucial for understanding the weakening of the THC

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