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Martyn P. Clark and Lauren E. Hay

by restricting ensemble members to years that are similar in terms of the phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). In most cases this provides a set of ensembles that are more tightly clustered than the full ensemble. On shorter time scales, further reductions in ensemble spread may be realized by replacing the ensemble of data from previous years with output from atmospheric forecast models. This paper explores the utility of

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Lu Gao, Jie Huang, Xingwei Chen, Ying Chen, and Meibing Liu

in the trend analysis of precipitation, temperature, and runoff series ( Jiang and Xiong 2012 ; Villarini et al. 2010 ). Zhang et al. (2015) introduced the Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Pacific Oscillation index (NPO), Pacific decadal oscillation index (PDO), Southern Oscillation index (SOI), and reservoir index into GAMLSS to explore the impact of climate change and human activity on the annual maximum streamflow in the East River basin of China. The southeastern coastal region of China

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Jeffrey Shaman, Marc Stieglitz, Stephen Zebiak, and Mark Cane

events ( Krzysztofowicz 1983 ) and to estimate uncertainties in the NWS streamflow forecasts ( Krzysztofowicz and Watada 1986 ). Associations between seasonal stream discharge and large-scale, regional climate phenomena, such as the El Niño-Southern–Oscillation (ENSO), have also been documented ( Richey et al. 1989 ; Simpson et al. 1993 ; Chiew et al. 1998 ; Schmidt et al. 2001 ). These associations have been combined with regression or autoregression (Markov) models to create further constrained

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Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, William J. Merryfield, and Viatcheslav V. Kharin

1996 ; Ferranti and Molteni 1999 ; Martineu et al. 1999 ; Corti et al. 2000 ; Shaman and Tziperman 2005 ; Wu et al. 2012 ), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Arctic Oscillation (AO; Clark et al. 1999 ; Bojariu and Gimeno 2003 ; Bamzai 2003 ; Saito and Cohen 2003 ; Cohen and Fletcher 2007 ; Riddle et al. 2013 ). Sobolowski and Frei (2007) showed that ENSO and NAO together explain about 23% of the total winter SWE variance across North America in 1980–97, with centers of

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Ville Lindgren, Joseph H. A. Guillaume, Timo A. Räsänen, Juho Jakkila, Noora Veijalainen, and Matti Kummu

Finland, interesting teleconnections to study, among others, would be the NAO and the Arctic Oscillation (AO), which have already been studied in Finland to some extent, but their linkage to the changes discovered in this study are not known. Furthermore, recent studies have already linked changes in mean temperature ( Irannezhad et al. 2014a ) and precipitation ( Irannezhad et al. 2014b ) in Finland to several teleconnections, including east Atlantic/west Russia (EA/WR), Scandinavia (SCA), and polar

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Wenguang Wei, Zhongwei Yan, and P. D. Jones

usually a driving process behind it (e.g., global warming and transition from one to another phase of some large-scale climate oscillation). For Xinjiang in northwestern China, previous studies have shown that, during the past half century, increasing atmospheric water vapor mainly comes from the North Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean for summer and from the Caspian Sea and the Mediterranean for winter ( Dai et al. 2007 ). A major increase of the water vapor in Xinjiang happened in the middle of the 1980

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Hailan Wang, Siegfried Schubert, Randal Koster, Yoo-Geun Ham, and Max Suarez

– 610 , doi: 10.1175/JHM510.1 . Kumar, A. , Schubert S. , and Suarez M. , 2003 : Variability and predictability of 200-mb seasonal mean heights during summer and winter . J. Geophys. Res. , 108 , 4169 , doi: 10.1029/2002JD002728 . Lim, Y.-K. , and Schubert S. , 2011 : The impact of ENSO and the Arctic Oscillation on winter temperature extremes in the southeast United States . Geophys. Res. Lett. , 38 , L15706 , doi: 10.1029/2011GL048283 . Lin, S.-J. , 2004 : A vertically

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G. W. K. Moore, Robert D. Field, and Carl S. Benson

climatological importance for a variety of reasons. Most notably, it is located at the end of the major North Pacific storm track ( Blackmon 1976 ; Hoskins and Hodges 2002 ) along the main atmospheric pathway for the moisture that enters the Mackenzie River basin, which covers 20% of the Canadian landmass and which supports the fourth-largest river flowing into the Arctic Ocean ( Lackmann et al. 1998 ; Stewart et al. 1998 ; Smirnov and Moore 1999 , 2001 ). Furthermore, the region is located in the center

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Keah C. Schuenemann, John J. Cassano, and Joel Finnis

studies have tried to find a correlation between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and precipitation or accumulation over Greenland ( Appenzeller et al. 1998 ; Bromwich et al. 1999 ; Rogers et al. 2004 ; Johannessen et al. 2005 ; Mosely-Thompson et al. 2005 ; Hanna et al. 2006 ; Reusch et al. 2007 ), but they found little or no correlation between Greenland precipitation and the NAO over long periods of time, except for a weak correlation for western region precipitation. Therefore, the NAO

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Xia Zhang, Shu Fen Sun, and Yongkang Xue

numerical scheme to estimate θ k +1, m +1 i : where ω is a relaxation factor and γ is the unit conversion factor (K) [ C t /( L il ρ i )]. Here T * k +1, m +1 is calculated according to Eq. (5) with the known θ k +1, m +1 l and θ k +1, m +1 i that are used in step 1. This estimation for temperature is based on the fact that soil temperature change is small during a phase change. The variable θ k +1, m +1 i from Eq. (11) avoids numerical oscillations of calculated temperature due

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