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Wang Fu and Scott Steinschneider

seasons ( Carter and Steinschneider 2018 ). This motivates the present study, which seeks to determine the large-scale climate patterns that drive winter precipitation over the Great Lakes, and the potential for seasonal prediction to inform flood preparedness and water level management of the lake system. There is a rich literature on the associations between large-scale modes of atmospheric and oceanic variability [e.g., Pacific–North American (PNA), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), El Niño

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Charlotte M. Emery, Cédric H. David, Konstantinos M. Andreadis, Michael J. Turmon, John T. Reager, Jonathan M. Hobbs, Ming Pan, James S. Famiglietti, Edward Beighley, and Matthew Rodell

oscillations, especially at validation gauges ( Fig. S8 ). A close examination of these oscillations reveals an apparent 2-day period around the gauge observations that appears to be a series of successive over and undercompensation of the corrections. These oscillations are the source of degraded NSE noted for one validation gauge and explain the relatively lower NSE values over validation gauges compared to assimilation gauges ( Table 1 ). The oscillations are likely a source for the instabilities noted

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Justin Sheffield, Ben Livneh, and Eric F. Wood

) found the Noah sublimation to be too high over the Arctic, driven by a turbulent exchange coefficient that was excessively large for the stable boundary conditions of the Arctic. For the NARR specifically, a number of other factors have previously been highlighted ( NCEP 2011 ) that may also play a role. A high bias in the downward shortwave radiation because of lack of cloud cover attenuation contributes to early snowmelt. Because of this, the assimilation of USAF snowpack data in the NARR would

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Eric F. Wood, Siegfried D. Schubert, Andrew W. Wood, Christa D. Peters-Lidard, Kingtse C. Mo, Annarita Mariotti, and Roger S. Pulwarty

predict the SST, and are there particular regions (or even ocean basins) where the large-scale atmospheric response is particularly sensitive to SST anomalies? At these time scales the unpredictable signal is typically dominated during the cold season by well-known atmospheric teleconnections (e.g., the NAO, Arctic Oscillation, and Pacific–North American patterns), while during the warm season there is now mounting evidence that large-scale planetary (Rossby) waves (also largely driven by processes

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John Roads

. The period analyzed here (1998–99) had a strong El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, with an El Niño occurring during early 1998 and a La Niña pattern developing during late 1998 and 1999 ( Bell et al. 1999 ). This cycle was characterized during JFM by broad areas of the equatorial Pacific having increased precipitation and the corresponding maritime Indonesian archipelago, equatorial South America, and subtropical Pacific and Indian Ocean areas having decreased precipitation due to changes

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Christoph Marty, Anna-Maria Tilg, and Tobias Jonas

-009-0186-x Christian-Smith , J. , M. C. Levy , and P. H. Gleick , 2015 : Maladaptation to drought: A case report from California, USA . Sustain. Sci. , 10 , 491 – 501 , doi: 10.1007/s11625-014-0269-1 . 10.1007/s11625-014-0269-1 Cohen , J. , J. Furtado , M. Barlow , V. Alexeev , and J. Cherry , 2012 : Arctic warming, increasing snow cover and widespread boreal winter cooling . Environ. Res. Lett. , 7 , 014007 , doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014007 . 10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014007 Franz , K

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Yu-shu Zhou, Ze-ming Xie, and Xin Liu

trajectories are represented for the above ground level in Fig. 4 . As seen from the figures, the target particles in the study areas a–d ( Figs. 4a–d ) are mostly from the regions west of Xinjiang, including central Asia, the western part of North Asia, Europe, north Africa, the Mediterranean Sea, the Black Sea, the Atlantic Ocean, and the Arctic Ocean. The target particles within all study areas are mainly transported into Xinjiang along the western water vapor channel. Furthermore, Fig. 4 shows that

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Yefim L. Kogan, Zena N. Kogan, and David B. Mechem

1. Introduction Marine stratus and stratocumulus clouds play an important role in global water and energy budget by increasing the local planetary albedo by 30%–50% while having relatively little impact on outgoing longwave radiation. These clouds are widespread and at any given time may cover much of the eastern subtropical Pacific and Atlantic, most of the Arctic Sea in summer, and large regions of the middle latitudes. Charlson et al. (1987) estimate that stratus and stratocumulus clouds

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Youcun Qi and Jian Zhang

. Meteor. Soc. , 97 , 621 – 638 , doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00174.1 . 10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00174.1 Zhang , K. , J. S. Kimball , K. C. McDonald , J. J. Cassano , and S. W. Running , 2007 : Impacts of large-scale oscillations on pan-Arctic terrestrial net primary production . Geophys. Res. Lett. , 34 , L21403 , doi: 10.1029/2007GL031605 . 10.1029/2007GL031605 Zhang , K. , J. S. Kimball , Y. Kim , and K. C. McDonald , 2011 : Changing freeze–thaw seasons in northern high latitudes and

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Jason A. Otkin, Martha C. Anderson, Christopher Hain, and Mark Svoboda

drought forecasts tend to be closely tied to anomalous circulation patterns associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation phenomenon (e.g., Hoerling and Kumar 2003 ; Schubert et al. 2007 ), intrinsic atmospheric variability and land surface feedbacks acting over subseasonal time scales are also important (e.g., Kumar et al. 2013 ; Guo and Dirmeyer 2013 ). This is especially true in the midlatitudes, where remote forcing due to tropical sea surface temperature anomalies is weaker ( Madden 1976

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