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Walter F. Dabberdt, Jeremy Hales, Steven Zubrick, Andrew Crook, Witold Krajewski, J. Christopher Doran, Cynthia Mueller, Clark King, Ronald N. Keener, Robert Bornstein, David Rodenhuis, Paul Kocin, Michael A. Rossetti, Fred Sharrocks, and Ellis M. Stanley Sr.

The 10th Prospectus Development Team (PDT-10) of the U.S. Weather Research Program was charged with identifying research needs and opportunities related to the short-term prediction of weather and air quality in urban forecast zones. Weather has special and significant impacts on large numbers of the U.S. population who live in major urban areas. It is recognized that urban users have different weather information needs than do their rural counterparts. Further, large urban areas can impact local weather and hydrologic processes in various ways. The recommendations of the team emphasize that human life and well-being in urban areas can be protected and enjoyed to a significantly greater degree. In particular, PDT-10 supports the need for 1) improved access to real-time weather information, 2) improved tailoring of weather data to the specific needs of individual user groups, and 3) more user-specific forecasts of weather and air quality. Specific recommendations fall within nine thematic areas: 1) development of a user-oriented weather database; 2) focused research on the impacts of visibility and icing on transportation; 3) improved understanding and forecasting of winter storms; 4) improved understanding and forecasting of convective storms; 5) improved forecasting of intense/severe lightning; 6) further research into the impacts of large urban areas on the location and intensity of urban convection; 7) focused research on the application of mesoscale forecasting in support of emergency response and air quality; 8) quantification and reduction of uncertainty in hydrological, meteorological, and air quality modeling; and 9) the need for improved observing systems. An overarching recommendation of PDT-10 is that research into understanding and predicting weather impacts in urban areas should receive increased emphasis by the atmospheric science community at large, and that urban weather should be a focal point of the U.S. Weather Research Program.

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The Cyclonic Disturbances of the Sub-Tropical Eastern North Atlantic

Adapted from Parts II and III of “Variations of Pressure and Wind; A Treatise on the Weather of the Trade Wind Region of the Eastern North Atlantic,” by Walter Piersig, Aus dem Archiv d. deutschen Seewarte, Bd. 54, No. 6, 1936.

The “Hoffmeyer Charts”, a joint publication of the Deutsche Seewarte and the Netherlands Meteorological Institute, covering the years 1881–1911, offer an extraordinary opportunity to study the types and behavior of pressure disturbances which form in the trade-wind belt of the eastern North Atlantic. Such disturbances occur relatively infrequently, so that they can only be studied when data from such a long period of years is available.

A systematic review of the “Hoffmeyer Charts” revealed that there are four principal types of disturbances, none of which is as intense in character as middle latitude cyclones, but which nevertheless have definite types of weather phenomena associated with them which may be of considerable significance to ocean and air transportation. These disturbances were classified as follows: Type 1 is a low pressure area centered in middle or higher latitudes of the North Atlantic Ocean, whose influence, however, extends as far south as 25° N. Lat. or more: Type 2 is a disturbance centered at about 30°N, 30°W. Both type 1 and 2 derive from middle latitude disturbances, and usually begin as a secondary. Type 3 is a low-pressure center near the Canary Islands, which may originate on the West African coast south of 20° N and move westward toward the Canaries, or may originate near the Canaries and travel eastward along the same route, or, as is most frequently the case, may originate near or just north of the Canaries, expand or fill up on the spot, or perhaps attach itself to a low moving eastward in higher latitudes. Type 4 is a low on the West African coast between 5° and 20° N which moves westward. These usually move along the southern edge of the trade-wind belt.

“The tracks and monthly frequency of disturbances of these various types is discussed in considerable detail, as well as the duration and tendency to repetition. A detailed synoptic analysis of a type 4 disturbance is given.”

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Rui Zhong, Shibin Xu, Fei Huang, and Xin Wu

by the Shanghai Typhoon Institute, China Meteorological Administration (CMA-STI). CMA-STI TC best track dataset records the time, strength, latitude, longitude, center minimum pressure, and 2-min center maximum wind speed for the TCs formed in the WNP (contain SCS) every 6 h. Especially, the TDs that do not intensify into TSs during their lifetime are also recorded in this dataset. This dataset has good accuracy in the position and intensity of TC in the SCS. But there are some subcenter TC data

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Olivier Bousquet and Bradley F. Smull

ground-based instruments and because of pervasive beam blocking in regions of rugged terrain, many scientific opportunities presented by these programs hinge on the proper analysis of airborne Doppler radar datasets, which offer a unique means to collect detailed information on terrain-forced phenomena and to relate them to the larger-scale mesosynoptic environments in which they develop. On the other hand, the topographic and meteorological complexity characteristic of mountainous regions serve to

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Executive Summary

Important opportunities to decrease the risks to the nation from hazardous weather and global climate change and to create economic advantages through better understanding and prediction will be available to the administration that takes office in January 1989. In contrast to Mark Twain's observation that “Everybody talks about the weather, but nobody does anything about it,” today there is much that is being done, and even more that must be done. The atmospheric sciences community is prepared to help carry out the needed actions.

There are two areas in which action should be taken: protecting life and property, and assessing and preparing for coming dramatic changes in climate. This report recommends specific actions and programs. It has been prepared jointly by the American Meteorological Society (AMS), a nonprofit scientific society of 10,000 members, and the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), a consortium of 57 universities.

Protecting Life and Property. Tornadoes, flash floods, hurricanes, blizzards, and severe thunderstorms accompanied by hail and microbursts are collectively more frequent in, and pose a greater threat to, the United States than any other nation. No part of the country is immune. Significantly improved warnings of these threatening, sometimes catastrophic events are now within reach.

Weather on a regional scale also has significant and pervasive effects on the nation's agriculture, water resources, transportation, industry, and economy. Improved weather prediction, which could provide guidance a week and longer in advance, would provide substantial economic benefits to the nation.

A key to mitigating the effects of severe weather and flood events is an improved warning system that will provide the public and industry with the weather information they need, when they need it. This can be achieved by combining new observational and information processing systems with a research program focused on understanding the development of severe storms. The nation is already moving forward with new weather satellites, advanced surface radars, and new wind profiling systems and with information systems to collect and use the vast amounts of new data. Plans have been developed for acquiring supercomputers to prepare forecasts and carry out complementary research to realize the full benefits from the investment in the new systems and to restore the United States to leadership in weather prediction.

One of the two top-priority actions recommended by the AMS and UCAR is to complete the implementation of the existing national program to improve warnings, and to expand our capabilities in weather prediction by the acquisition of supercomputers and enhancement of a severe storms research program.

The total costs of this national program are small compared to the actual and potential losses of life and property from severe weather and flooding that occur in the United States. They are also small compared to the potential savings to the nation from more accurate and longer-range weather predictions.

Anticipating the Consequences of Climate Change. The world is increasingly aware that the global climate is changing as a result of human activities that are altering concentrations of trace gases in the atmosphere and characteristics of the earth's surface. In the next few decades, we can expect a significant global warming, an increase in sea level, and marked changes in regional and local climate. These can dramatically change agricultural productivity and human habitability in many regions of the world. The release of chlorofluorocarbons has reduced the amount of ozone in the stratosphere, with potentially disastrous effects on life on the planet, if left unchecked. Even with the vigorous effort that we must make to slow the emissions of heat-trapping gases, major climate changes are already unavoidable.

Therefore, the second top-priority action recommended by the AMS and UCAR is that the United States and other nations combine efforts to develop the observational data base, the computer models, and the understanding needed to anticipate the course of climate-related events, to estimate their impacts, and to prepare for future changes.

The United States must play a leadership role in this endeavor that is fundamental to the well-being of all peoples of the world and therefore inherently international. The investment, while substantial, is essential to ensure that the international actions to limit and adapt to the changes in climate are taken on a sound basis.

Setting Firm Priorities. The United States' effort in atmospheric sciences is executed by unique partnerships of federal agencies, universities, and private sector firms. Climate change is global in nature, and therefore coordinated international action is also needed. A top priority of the new Administration must be a responsible fiscal policy that diminishes federal deficits. Hence, the recommendations made here are constrained to the two highest-priority targets—taking essential actions to strengthen programs in climate and severe weather.

As with many investments made to realize the full potential of earlier investments, those described here will be repaid many times over in reduction of damage, in increased economic efficiency and productivity, and in the foresight that may allow us to cope wisely with the impacts of climate change on this nation. Letting Mark Twain's aphorism, that “nobody does anything about it,” be our national policy in the face of the threat of global change could be the origin of a national and international disaster early in the next century.

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VOLUME35 JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY OCTOBER 1996EDITORIAL Recognizing the need to provide an understanding of the various components of riskanalysis and to provide a comprehensive approach to risk management, an Indo-U.S.workshop on "Environmental Risk Analysis: Safety, Planning and Management" washeld during 2-6 January 1995 at the Indian Institute of Technology in Delhi. The mainobjective of the workshop was

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every clime has important weather problema to meet and overcome, for trains and tracks have no protection against thevarioue elemente of nature. First of all. temperature extreme8 have a racking effect upon all ateel and iron work. Rails and car wheels, exposed to such aevere meteorological conditions, often break and delays sometimea result. To overcome these troubles. steel. made by the open-hearth proceaa is being used with good results. Of the various forma of p.kpitation anow is regarded aa the

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. The Philippine Weather Bureau, Manila.The Meteorological Observatory of Belen College, Habana. The General Superintendent of the United States LifesavingThe Government Meteorological Office of Jamaica.The Meteorological Service of the Azores. The Director-General of Mexican Telegraphs.Contributions for the MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW concern- Contributions for the MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW from for-ing agriculture, transportation, water uses and resources, fores- eign correspondents should be addressed to

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, Manila.The Meteorological Observatory of Belen College, Habana. The General Superintendent of the United Statea Life-Saving The Government Meteorological Office of Jamaica.The Meteorological Service of the bores. The Director-General of Mexican Telegraphs.Contributions for the MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW concern- Contributions for the MONTHLY WEATHER RBVIEW from for- ing agriculture, transportation, water uses and resources, fores- eign correspondentR should be addressed to the Chief, U. S try. and

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, Manila.The Meteorological Observatory of Belen College, Habana. The General Superintendent of the United Statea Life-Saving The Government Meteorological Office of Jamaica.The Meteorological Service of the bores. The Director-General of Mexican Telegraphs.Contributions for the MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW concern- Contributions for the MONTHLY WEATHER RBVIEW from for- ing agriculture, transportation, water uses and resources, fores- eign correspondentR should be addressed to the Chief, U. S try. and

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