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Daniel E. Christiansen
,
Steven L. Markstrom
, and
Lauren E. Hay

that birds wintering in the southern United States now arrive back in the Northeast an average of 13 days earlier than they did between 1900 and 1950, and birds wintering in South America arrive back in the Northeast an average of 4 days earlier ( Janetos et al. 2008 ). Phenological studies have shown that the increase in GSL caused by warmer air temperatures have caused many species of animals and plants to expand their geographic ranges poleward in latitude and upward in elevation over the past

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Roland J. Viger
,
Lauren E. Hay
,
Steven L. Markstrom
,
John W. Jones
, and
Gary R. Buell

1. Introduction This article describes a study that is part of the climate-change project described in the overview article of this Integrated Watershed special collection ( Hay et al. 2011 ). It is distinct from the other studies presented because it examines the hydrologic effect of changing land-cover patterns and the interaction of this effect with those created by climate change. In this study, a watershed model was run to simulate the hydrology of a basin through the year 2050 by using

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