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Benjamin C. Trabing, Michael M. Bell, and Bonnie R. Brown

1. Introduction Upper-tropospheric temperatures have been shown to be important for determining the maximum intensity that a tropical cyclone (TC) can reach, but the physical mechanisms through which the upper troposphere impacts TC intensity and structure have not been fully explored, due in part to limited observations and the complex interactions between clouds, radiation, and TC dynamics. A seminal theory on the potential intensity (PI) that a TC can attain was formulated by Emanuel (1986

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Jonathan Martinez, Michael M. Bell, Robert F. Rogers, and James D. Doyle

1. Introduction Accurate forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity changes remain one of the most difficult weather predictions, even for short lead times. This is in part due to multiscale interactions, which require operational forecast models to precisely capture the evolution of the atmosphere over a vast range of scales in the vicinity of a TC. DeMaria et al. (2014) demonstrated that although intensity forecast errors have not improved as much as track forecast errors over the past

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