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Andreas Schäfler, Andreas Dörnbrack, Christoph Kiemle, Stephan Rahm, and Martin Wirth

water vapor and the associated latent heat release are thought to be a major weakness in the formulation of current operational NWP models. The diagnosis of “forecast–analysis” differences of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecast System (IFS) by Didone (2006) and Dirren et al. (2003) revealed characteristic patterns of forecast errors on the downstream side of the cold front of the extratropical cyclones. Among the observational errors of the initial

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