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Toward a Systematic Evaluation of Warm Conveyor Belts in Numerical Weather Prediction and Climate Models. Part I: Predictor Selection and Logistic Regression Model

Julian F. Quinting and Christian M. Grams

vapor transport that supplies moisture to the base of the WCB ( Wernli 1997 ; Dacre et al. 2019 ). The WCB starts to ascend across the warm front of the cyclone (label 2 in Fig. 1 ), collocated with a region of upper- and lower-tropospheric quasigeostrophic forcing for ascent ( Binder et al. 2016 ). WCB ascent is accompanied by strong latent heat release due to stratiform and convective cloud and precipitation formation ( Neiman and Shapiro 1993 ; Oertel et al. 2019 ), which is sensitive to the

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Fiaz Ahmed and J. David Neelin

. R. Durran , 1996 : The influence of convectively generated thermal forcing on the mesoscale circulation around squall lines . J. Atmos. Sci. , 53 , 2924 – 2951 ,<2924:TIOCGT>2.0.CO;2 . 10.1175/1520-0469(1996)053<2924:TIOCGT>2.0.CO;2 Peters , O. , and J. D. Neelin , 2006 : Critical phenomena in atmospheric precipitation . Nat. Phys. , 2 , 393 – 396 , . 10.1038/nphys314 Peters , O. , J. D. Neelin

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Yi-Hung Kuo, Kathleen A. Schiro, and J. David Neelin

of temperature and moisture structure not captured by the bulk measures used here, large-scale convergence/divergence, radiative forcing associated with existing clouds or the lack thereof, and triggering of convection because of cold pool expansion from organized systems or land–sea breeze in coastal regions—may vary geographically, causing geographic variations at regional scales (e.g., Torri et al. 2015 ; Bergemann and Jakob 2016 ; Ahmed and Schumacher 2017 ). As such, the effectiveness of

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