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Christian Barthlott and Corinna Hoose

profiles then lead to differences in the stability and relative humidity, both of which are highly relevant to cloud formation and precipitation. The advantage of this method is that the dominating weather regime and the environmental conditions in the planetary boundary layer and at cloud base are not changed. To cover different weather regimes, this technique is applied to days with weak synoptic forcing (airmass convection) and strong synoptic forcing (passage of frontal zones). In each of these

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Kirstin Kober and George C. Craig

2006 ). Multiple integrations of NWP models (ensembles) can be used to provide probabilistic information but can be set up in different ways, depending on the represented sources of uncertainty. Recent studies have shown that in different weather regimes, different sources of uncertainty dominate: in cases of strong large-scale forcing, initial and boundary conditions uncertainty contributes more to the overall uncertainty, whereas in weak large-scale forcing, model error is more important

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Stephan Rasp, Tobias Selz, and George C. Craig

second moment can be expressed in terms of the normalized variance or in terms of the unnormalized standard deviation b. Previous tests of the CC06 theory So far, few studies have directly tested the assumptions and predictions of CC06. Cohen and Craig (2006) used a convection-permitting model in a radiative–convective equilibrium setup with different large-scale forcing and vertical wind shear strengths and found that p ( m ) was well approximated by an exponential distribution for all settings

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Toward a Systematic Evaluation of Warm Conveyor Belts in Numerical Weather Prediction and Climate Models. Part I: Predictor Selection and Logistic Regression Model

Julian F. Quinting and Christian M. Grams

vapor transport that supplies moisture to the base of the WCB ( Wernli 1997 ; Dacre et al. 2019 ). The WCB starts to ascend across the warm front of the cyclone (label 2 in Fig. 1 ), collocated with a region of upper- and lower-tropospheric quasigeostrophic forcing for ascent ( Binder et al. 2016 ). WCB ascent is accompanied by strong latent heat release due to stratiform and convective cloud and precipitation formation ( Neiman and Shapiro 1993 ; Oertel et al. 2019 ), which is sensitive to the

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Tobias Selz, Lucas Fischer, and George C. Craig

. Res. , 107 , 8306 , doi: 10.1029/2001JD000879 . Wang , H. , G. Feingold , R. Wood , and J. Kazil , 2010 : Modelling microphysical and meteorological controls on precipitation and cloud cellular structures in Southeast Pacific stratocumulus . Atmos. Chem. Phys. , 10 , 6347 – 6362 , doi: 10.5194/acp-10-6347-2010 . 10.5194/acp-10-6347-2010 Yokohata , T. , S. Emori , T. Nozawa , Y. Tsushima , T. Ogura , and M. Kimoto , 2005 : Climate response to volcanic forcing

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Tobias Selz, Lotte Bierdel, and George C. Craig

wind into its divergent and rotational components. The shape of the spectrum and the associated variability might thus be related to the variable dynamical mechanisms driving the small- and large-scale flows, rather than the variability associated with a dynamical mechanism on the mesoscale range. The relationship between the spectra and the small- and large-scale dynamical forcing mechanisms are examined in the following two subsections. b. Small-scale variability and precipitation rate The high

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