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Lixion A. Avila and Stacy R. Stewart

as the primary platforms. GOES-East and Meteosat-9 provide the visible and infrared imagery that serve as input for position and intensity estimates based on the Dvorak classification technique ( Dvorak 1984 ; Velden et al. 2006 ). Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates used by NHC are performed by NHC's Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) and the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) in Camp Springs, Maryland. The Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT; Olander and Velden 2007 ) is an objective

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Stacy R. Stewart and John P. Cangialosi

tropical depressions that did not strengthen further. The fifth and final section discusses and critiques the verification of National Hurricane Center (NHC) track and intensity forecasts for the 2010 season. 2. Data The individual cyclone summaries that follow are based on NHC poststorm meteorological analyses of a wide variety of data described below. These analyses result in the creation of a “best track” database for each cyclone, consisting of 6-hourly representative estimates of the cyclone

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John L. Beven II and Eric S. Blake

the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA’s) Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX) field program. Poststorm analyses result in the creation of a “best track” database for each cyclone, consisting of 6-hourly representative estimates of the cyclone’s center location, maximum sustained (1-min average) surface (10 m) wind, minimum sea level pressure, and (since 2003) the maximum extent of 34-, 50-, and 64-kt winds in each of the four ordinal (northeast, southeast, southwest, and

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Lixion A. Avila and Jamie Rhome

incipient cyclones were already close to cooler waters and moving into a more stable environment. This resulted in a relatively high number of weak short-lived cyclones during the season, and contributed to the unusually low seasonal ACE index noted above. A summary of the life cycle of each of the 2007 season’s named tropical cyclones is provided in section 2 . Section 3 provides verification statistics on official National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts of these cyclones. 2. Tropical cyclone

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Richard J. Pasch, Eric S. Blake, Lixion A. Avila, John L. Beven, Daniel P. Brown, James L. Franklin, Richard D. Knabb, Michelle M. Mainelli, Jamie R. Rhome, and Stacy R. Stewart

more tropical cyclones during the upper-level divergent phases of the MJO, which provided an environment more conducive for convection. It should be noted, however, that this MJO signal is often not as well defined as it was in 2006, which makes it difficult for forecasters to use such diagrams in real time. A summary of the life cycle of each of the 2006 season’s tropical cyclones is provided in section 2 . Section 3 provides verification statistics on official National Hurricane Center (NHC

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James L. Franklin and Daniel P. Brown

-air observations supplement the satellite and reconnaissance data. In key forecast situations, the kinematic and thermodynamic structure of the storm environment is obtained from dropsondes released during operational “synoptic surveillance” flights of NOAA’s Gulfstream IV jet aircraft ( Aberson and Franklin 1999 ). Several satellite-based technologies play an important role in the analysis of tropical weather systems. Foremost of these is multichannel passive microwave imagery [e.g., from the Tropical

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Eric S. Blake and Richard J. Pasch

on official National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts. 2. Tropical cyclone summaries The individual cyclone summaries that follow are based on NHC poststorm meteorological analyses of a wide variety of (often contradictory) data described below. These analyses result in the creation of a best-track database for each cyclone, consisting of 6-hourly representative estimates of the cyclone’s center position, maximum sustained (1-min average) surface (10 m) wind, minimum sea level

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Robert J. Berg and Lixion A. Avila

this season’’s tropical cyclones was relatively minor and quantitative estimates are not available. Descriptions of the type and scope of damage are taken from a variety of sources, including local and international government officials, media reports, and local National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) in the affected areas. Tornado counts are based on reports provided by the WFOs and/or the NWS Storm Prediction Center. The strength of the tornadoes is rated using the enhanced

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Richard J. Pasch, Lixion A. Avila, and John L. Guiney

Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center (TPC/NHC) and to the local National Weather Service forecast offices. These include reports of peak wind gusts of 104 kt near North Carolina State Port at 0138 UTC and 100 kt at Wrightsville Beach at 1951 UTC 27 August. Rainfall totals of about 200–280 mm were recorded in portions of eastern North Carolina. Storm tides of 1.5–2.4 m above normal were reported mainly in eastern beaches of Brunswick County, North Carolina, while a storm surge of 1.8 m was reported

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Daniel P. Brown, John L. Beven, James L. Franklin, and Eric S. Blake

for the season’s tropical storms and hurricanes are given in Fig. 1 and Table 1 , respectively. (Tabulations of the 6-hourly best-track positions and intensities can be found in the NHC tropical cyclone reports, available online at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastall.shtml . These reports contain storm information omitted here because of space limitations, including additional surface observations and a forecast and warning critique.) In the cyclone summaries below, U.S. property damage estimates

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