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Julia H. Keller, Christian M. Grams, Michael Riemer, Heather M. Archambault, Lance Bosart, James D. Doyle, Jenni L. Evans, Thomas J. Galarneau Jr., Kyle Griffin, Patrick A. Harr, Naoko Kitabatake, Ron McTaggart-Cowan, Florian Pantillon, Julian F. Quinting, Carolyn A. Reynolds, Elizabeth A. Ritchie, Ryan D. Torn, and Fuqing Zhang

research on the representation of model errors arising from diabatic processes using techniques such as stochastic physics. The research summarized in this review primarily focused on assessing the impact of ET on the short-to-medium-range forecast horizon. Preliminary results reveal a statistically significant correlation between monthly mean values of selected teleconnection indices and ET event counts, as well as significant departures from climatology on the subseasonal to seasonal time scale in

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Volkmar Wirth, Michael Riemer, Edmund K. M. Chang, and Olivia Martius

to surface weather that falls into the tail(s) of the respective local distribution (e.g., precipitation exceeding the 95th percentile). To the extent that weather events inherit predictability from larger-scale dynamical features such as RWPs ( Anthes et al. 1985 ), a better understanding of the RWPs may help to improve the weather forecast, and this is particularly relevant in case of extreme weather. An example is the episode in August 2002, when a quasi-stationary low pressure system over

Open access