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Richard Seager and Martin Hoerling

forced by anomalous heat sources over the warm tropical Pacific SST anomalies ( Hoskins and Karoly 1981 ). Trenberth et al. (1988) then applied linear wave theory to link the 1988 drought to the ongoing La Niña event and Palmer and Brankovic (1989) claimed to be able to produce important elements of the same drought within the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) numerical weather prediction model when forced by the observed SSTs. Explaining a seasonal drought is good

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