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Erin B. Munsell, Fuqing Zhang, Jason A. Sippel, Scott A. Braun, and Yonghui Weng

1. Introduction Over the past 5 years, considerable effort has been directed toward improving tropical cyclone (TC) intensity prediction. Despite this effort, the operational prediction of tropical cyclone formation and significant changes in intensity, such as rapid intensification (RI) or decay, remain particularly challenging ( Elsberry et al. 2007 ). These TC forecasts are typically characterized by considerable uncertainty, though past studies have demonstrated the ability of ensemble

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