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Kirstin Kober and George C. Craig

physically based stochastic perturbations will be introduced as well as the mesoscale weather prediction model used in this study and the verifying observational data. In section 3 , the method will be applied in several case studies representing two different weather regimes to assess the structure of the perturbations, their impact on the precipitation fields, and the sensitivities in parameter settings of the perturbations scheme. Additionally, forecast quality of other variables will be assessed

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Simon T. K. Lang, Sarah C. Jones, Martin Leutbecher, Melinda S. Peng, and Carolyn A. Reynolds

. Smith , and R. Buizza , 2001 : Linear regime duration: Is 24 hours a long time in synoptic weather forecasting? J. Atmos. Sci. , 58 , 3525 – 3539 . Hartmann , D. L. , R. Buizza , and T. N. Palmer , 1995 : Singular vectors: The effect of spatial scale on linear growth of disturbances . J. Atmos. Sci. , 52 , 3885 – 3894 . Hodyss , D. , and S. J. Majumdar , 2007 : The contamination of ‘data impact’ in global models by rapidly growing mesoscale instabilities . Quart. J. Roy

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Franziska Teubler and Michael Riemer

wave packets (RWPs) for weather forecasting has long been recognized ( Cressman 1948 ; Hovmöller 1949 ). The role of RWPs as precursors to high-impact weather events has more recently been given special attention ( Shapiro and Thorpe 2004 ; Chang 2005 ; Martius et al. 2008 ; Wirth and Eichhorn 2014 ; Piaget et al. 2015 ). The investigation of RWPs along the midlatitude waveguide is the focus of this study. It is generally expected that RWPs, as large-scale flow features obeying balanced

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Michael Riemer, Marlene Baumgart, and Sven Eiermann

societal impact are one motivation to examine cyclogenesis downstream of ET in more detail. Further motivation stems from the important role of the downstream cyclone in the midlatitude dispersion of the impact of ET. This larger-scale impact exhibits high variability, may reach near-hemispheric scale, and is often associated with enhanced uncertainty in medium-range forecasts ( Harr et al. 2008 ; Anwender et al. 2008 ). The dispersion of the downstream impact is governed by the modification of

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Jana Čampa and Heini Wernli

1. Introduction a. Cyclone climatologies and climatologies of their characteristics Extratropical cyclones are the most important actors in determining daily weather in midlatitudes because of the strong winds and intense precipitation typically associated with them. Therefore, understanding of their structure and dynamics is of great importance for providing a reliable weather forecast. Several recent climatological studies deal with extratropical cyclones and their properties. Most of them

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