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Jeremiah O. Piersante, Russ. S. Schumacher, and Kristen L. Rasmussen

://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00130.1 . 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00130.1 Clark , A. J. , W. A. Gallus Jr. , and T.-C. Chen , 2007 : Comparison of the diurnal precipitation cycle in convection-resolving and non-convection-resolving mesoscale models . Mon. Wea. Rev. , 135 , 3456 – 3473 , https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3467.1 . 10.1175/MWR3467.1 Clark , A. J. , W. A. Gallus Jr. , M. Xue , and F. Kong , 2009 : A comparison of precipitation forecast skill between small convection-allowing and

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T. Connor Nelson, James Marquis, Adam Varble, and Katja Friedrich

context of the surrounding mesoscale heterogeneity, and section 4 analyzes profiles deemed best representative of the near-cloud environment of successful and unsuccessful CI events. Summary and conclusions are presented in section 5 . 2. Data overview An ensemble of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) convection-allowing numerical models (CAMs), employing 3–4-km horizontal grid spacing, were run by various institutions participating in the project, including the Colorado State University (CSU

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Zhixiao Zhang, Adam Varble, Zhe Feng, Joseph Hardin, and Edward Zipser

, S. S. , and W. M. Frank , 1993 : A numerical study of the genesis of extratropical convective mesovortices. Part I: Evolution and dynamics . J. Atmos. Sci. , 50 , 2401 – 2426 , https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1993)050<2401:ANSOTG>2.0.CO;2 . 10.1175/1520-0469(1993)050<2401:ANSOTG>2.0.CO;2 Clarke , S. J. , S. L. Gray , and N. M. Roberts , 2019 : Downstream influence of mesoscale convective systems. Part 1: Influence on forecast evolution . Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , 145

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Jeremiah O. Piersante, Kristen L. Rasmussen, Russ S. Schumacher, Angela K. Rowe, and Lynn A. McMurdie

subtropical South America (SSA) are deeper and more frequent than those east of the Rocky Mountains in North America ( Zipser et al. 2006 ; Houze et al. 2015 ). Specifically, the cloud shields associated with SSA mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are approximately 60% larger than those occurring in the continental United States (CONUS; Velasco and Fritsch 1987 ) and their precipitation areas are larger and longer lived ( Durkee et al. 2009 ; Durkee and Mote 2010 ), contributing up to ~95% of warm

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Russ S. Schumacher, Deanna A. Hence, Stephen W. Nesbitt, Robert J. Trapp, Karen A. Kosiba, Joshua Wurman, Paola Salio, Martin Rugna, Adam C. Varble, and Nathan R. Kelly

significant severe thunderstorms in the contiguous United States. Part II: Supercell and QLCS tornado environments . Wea. Forecasting , 27 , 1136 – 1154 , https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-11-00116.1 . 10.1175/WAF-D-11-00116.1 Trapp , R. J. , D. J. Stensrud , M. C. Coniglio , R. S. Schumacher , M. E. Baldwin , S. Waugh , and D. T. Conlee , 2016 : Mobile radiosonde deployments during the Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX): Rapid and adaptive sampling of upscale convective

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Jake P. Mulholland, Stephen W. Nesbitt, Robert J. Trapp, and John M. Peters

observations of the early evolution of bow echoes . Wea. Forecasting , 19 , 727 – 734 , https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(2004)019<0727:ROOTEE>2.0.CO;2 . 10.1175/1520-0434(2004)019<0727:ROOTEE>2.0.CO;2 Laing , A. G. , and J. M. Fritsch , 1997 : The global population of mesoscale convective complexes . Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , 123 , 389 – 405 , https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712353807 . 10.1002/qj.49712353807 Letkewicz , C. E. , and M. D. Parker , 2011 : Impact of environmental

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Stephen W. Nesbitt, Paola V. Salio, Eldo Ávila, Phillip Bitzer, Lawrence Carey, V. Chandrasekar, Wiebke Deierling, Francina Dominguez, Maria Eugenia Dillon, C. Marcelo Garcia, David Gochis, Steven Goodman, Deanna A. Hence, Karen A. Kosiba, Matthew R. Kumjian, Timothy Lang, Lorena Medina Luna, James Marquis, Robert Marshall, Lynn A. McMurdie, Ernani de Lima Nascimento, Kristen L. Rasmussen, Rita Roberts, Angela K. Rowe, Juan José Ruiz, Eliah F.M.T. São Sabbas, A. Celeste Saulo, Russ S. Schumacher, Yanina Garcia Skabar, Luiz Augusto Toledo Machado, Robert J. Trapp, Adam C. Varble, James Wilson, Joshua Wurman, Edward J. Zipser, Ivan Arias, Hernán Bechis, and Maxwell A. Grover

this end, University of Illinois (UI), CSU, Universidad de Buenos Aires (UBA), and SMN provided convection-permitting regional and global variable resolution runs over the RELAMPAGO region to supplement global numerical guidance. SMN and Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (UBA) implemented a mesoscale ensemble-based data assimilation and forecast system on NCAR’s Cheyenne supercomputer, which fostered the operational implementation of this system at SMN. Since briefings used for

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James N. Marquis, Adam C. Varble, Paul Robinson, T. Connor Nelson, and Katja Friedrich

. This work was aided by an undergraduate research assistant at the University of Colorado, Thomas Jarman. Data availability statement Data utilized are available on NCAR’s Earth Observing Laboratory and ARM’s Data Discovery catalogs. REFERENCES Alexander , L. S. , D. M. Sills , and P. A. Taylor , 2018 : Initiation of convective storms at low-level mesoscale boundaries in southwestern Ontario . Wea. Forecasting , 33 , 583 – 598 , https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-17-0086.1 . 10.1175/WAF-D-17

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Sujan Pal, Francina Dominguez, María Eugenia Dillon, Javier Alvarez, Carlos Marcelo Garcia, Stephen W. Nesbitt, and David Gochis

1. Introduction Some of the world’s deepest and largest convective storms develop at the foothills of the Sierras de Córdoba (SDC), a 2000-m north–south mountain range, east of the Andes, located in central Argentina ( Zipser et al. 2006 ). These intense and frequent convective storms organize into mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and then travel toward the eastern part of Argentina ( Salio et al. 2002 , 2007 ; Rasmussen and Houze 2011 ; Rasmussen et al. 2014 ; Vidal 2014 ; Mulholland

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Robert J. Trapp, Karen A. Kosiba, James N. Marquis, Matthew R. Kumjian, Stephen W. Nesbitt, Joshua Wurman, Paola Salio, Maxwell A. Grover, Paul Robinson, and Deanna A. Hence

representative of an average of the lowest 100-hPa of the atmosphere from each sounding are shown with dotted lines. One of the forecast uncertainties during IOP4 was the geographical location and timing of the initiation of deep convection, especially given the strength of the capping inversion and associated convective inhibition (CIN) present in the 1200 UTC soundings ( Fig. 3 ). Parcel lifting was expected in association with horizontal moisture convergence along an east–west-oriented mesoscale boundary

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