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Julia H. Keller, Christian M. Grams, Michael Riemer, Heather M. Archambault, Lance Bosart, James D. Doyle, Jenni L. Evans, Thomas J. Galarneau Jr., Kyle Griffin, Patrick A. Harr, Naoko Kitabatake, Ron McTaggart-Cowan, Florian Pantillon, Julian F. Quinting, Carolyn A. Reynolds, Elizabeth A. Ritchie, Ryan D. Torn, and Fuqing Zhang

processes associated with mesoscale convective systems over the Great Plains has been identified as a source of short-term skill degradations (busts) in ECMWF forecasts for Europe ( Rodwell et al. 2013 ). In such cases, diabatic processes act to decelerate the eastward progression of a synoptic-scale trough over the Rocky Mountains, similar to the processes described in section 2b . Errors in the representation of these diabatic processes and their impact on the midlatitude flow may lead to large phase

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Volkmar Wirth, Michael Riemer, Edmund K. M. Chang, and Olivia Martius

et al. 2008 ; Majumdar et al. 2010 ; Chang et al. 2013 ; Zheng et al. 2013 ). c. Upscale error growth affecting RWPs The predictability of RWPs depends on the upscale growth of errors and uncertainties from the convective scale to the synoptic scale (e.g., Zhang et al. 2003 ). Figure 13 illustrates such upscale error growth from the PV perspective, which emphasizes the tropopause waveguide and RWPs as focal points. At forecast day 2, PV errors exhibit localized, mesoscale maxima near the

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