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Jeremiah O. Piersante, Russ. S. Schumacher, and Kristen L. Rasmussen

biases. Müller et al. (2016) analyze precipitation and surface temperature forecasts over various forecast lead times, but use the same model configuration throughout. Clearly, there has yet to be a robust model verification analysis of atmospheric conditions favorable for MCSs and extreme rainfall, such as temperature, relative humidity, and wind in South America. While surface observations are widespread and available for ensemble-based forecast verification of extreme rainfall and the associated

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