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Nicholas A. Bond, Meghan F. Cronin, and Matthew Garvert

et al. (2008) and Torn and Hakim (2009) . The former study investigated the downstream predictability using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble prediction system; the latter study used an ensemble of NWP model simulations to explore the sensitivity of the modeled storm to initial conditions during the early portion of its extratropical phase. The standard deviations in 500-hPa geopotential height from these studies, in the vicinity of Tokage and downstream

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