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Marlene Baumgart, Michael Riemer, Volkmar Wirth, Franziska Teubler, and Simon T. K. Lang

. Res. , 101 , 1435 – 1456 , https://doi.org/10.1029/95JD02674 . 10.1029/95JD02674 Bauer , P. , A. Thorpe , and G. Brunet , 2015 : The quiet revolution of numerical weather prediction . Nature , 525 , 47 – 55 , https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14956 . 10.1038/nature14956 Boer , G. J. , 1984 : A spectral analysis of predictability and error in an operational forecast system . Mon. Wea. Rev. , 112 , 1183 – 1197 , https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1984)112<1183:ASAOPA>2.0.CO;2 . 10

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Gabriel Wolf and Volkmar Wirth

wave breaking toward the end of the life cycle resulted in the formation of a cutoff cyclone over Europe, which led to the heavy precipitation event. The rain was poorly forecast by the operational centers even on the relatively short time scale of a few days ( Grazzini and van der Grijn 2002 ). Assuming that large-scale and long-lived dynamical features should generally be predictable on a time scale longer than just a few days, this suggest that there may be room for improvements concerning the

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