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Kevin Bachmann, Christian Keil, George C. Craig, Martin Weissmann, and Christian A. Welzbacher

1. Introduction Convection-permitting numerical weather prediction (NWP) models underpin a step change for operational forecasting centers in their struggle to predict thunderstorms and convective precipitation ( Clark et al. 2016 ) as they allow some key issues to be addressed. First, the intrinsically limited predictability of the small scales, including convection, necessitates the use of ensembles to generate probabilistic forecasts and assess their confidence ( Lorenz 1969 ; Slingo and

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Eva-Maria Walz, Marlon Maranan, Roderick van der Linden, Andreas H. Fink, and Peter Knippertz

performance of current operational systems with respect to tropical rainfall calls for alternative approaches reaching from convection-permitting resolution ( Pante and Knippertz 2019 ) to methods from statistics and machine learning ( Shi et al. 2015 ; Rasp et al. 2020 ; Vogel et al. 2021 ). Before developing and evaluating new models and approaches, it is essential to establish benchmark forecasts in order to systematically assess forecast improvement. Rasp et al. (2020) recently proposed

Open access
Peter Vogel, Peter Knippertz, Andreas H. Fink, Andreas Schlueter, and Tilmann Gneiting

( Fig. 11c ). As for ECMWF, skill gaps in MSC are largest for Arid Americas and Mountain climates. Somewhat surprisingly, the skill gap grows markedly in 2014 for Arid Asia, leading to an overall significant positive trend. Fig . 11. As in Fig. 10 , but for the MSC model and during 2009–16. 5. Conclusions The quality of precipitation forecasts from two leading operational ensemble predictions systems (ECMWF and MSC) was assessed specifically for the tropics between 30°S and 30°N. TRMM satellite

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Tobias Kremer, Elmar Schömer, Christian Euler, and Michael Riemer

conditions have been taken from archived operational analysis from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The simulation employs rotated spherical coordinates ( Doms and Schättler 2002 ), with the model equator running approximately through the center of the domain at 35°N. This rotation of the coordinate system minimizes the convergence of the meridians such that the grid spacing, specified in degrees latitude and longitude, is approximately constant. The results will be presented in

Open access
Peter Vogel, Peter Knippertz, Andreas H. Fink, Andreas Schlueter, and Tilmann Gneiting

forecasts for the benefit of humanity” ( Bougeault et al. 2010 , p. 1060). Since its start in October 2006, up to 10 global NWP centers have provided their operational ensemble forecasts, which are accessible on a common 0.5° × 0.5° grid. Park et al. (2008) and Bougeault et al. (2010) discuss objectives and the setup of TIGGE, including the participating EPSs, in great detail. They also note early results using the TIGGE ensemble, while Swinbank et al. (2016) report on achievements accomplished

Open access
Michael Maier-Gerber, Michael Riemer, Andreas H. Fink, Peter Knippertz, Enrico Di Muzio, and Ron McTaggart-Cowan

were associated with the TT of Chris, before the results in terms of predictability are presented in section 4 . The findings and conclusions from this study are discussed in section 5 . 2. Data and methods a. Data The present case study is based on gridded, 6-hourly operational analysis and ensemble forecast data from the ECMWF. To assess the evolution of predictability, consecutive ensemble forecasts initialized at 0000 UTC between 10 June and 19 June 2012—equivalent to 9.5 (7) days prior to

Open access
Marlene Baumgart, Paolo Ghinassi, Volkmar Wirth, Tobias Selz, George C. Craig, and Michael Riemer

1. Introduction Weather prediction has improved significantly in the past decades ( Bauer et al. 2015 ). Forecast dropouts, however, do still occur in operational numerical weather prediction models ( Rodwell et al. 2013 , 2018 ). Because of the multiscale nature of atmospheric dynamics, there may always be an intrinsic limit of predictability even if model errors and initial-condition errors occur only on the smallest resolved scale ( Lorenz 1969 ). Small-scale errors associated with moist

Open access
Stephan Rasp and Sebastian Lerch

1. Introduction Numerical weather prediction based on physical models of the atmosphere has improved continuously since its inception more than four decades ago ( Bauer et al. 2015 ). In particular, the emergence of ensemble forecasts—simulations with varying initial conditions and/or model physics—added another dimension by quantifying the flow-dependent uncertainty. Yet despite these advances the raw forecasts continue to exhibit systematic errors that need to be corrected using statistical

Open access
Roderick van der Linden, Andreas H. Fink, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Tan Phan-Van

analysis as in Fröhlich and Knippertz (2008) . The 200-hPa trough axes were calculated from the operational analysis and EPS forecasts using zonal geopotential gradients at 200 hPa as in Knippertz (2004) . 3. Description of the extreme precipitation event Between 1200 UTC 25 July and 1200 UTC 3 August 2015, record-breaking rainfall was observed along the northeastern Vietnamese coast between Ha Long Bay and the border region of Vietnam with China. At five stations in northeastern Vietnam, rainfall

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Andreas Schäfler, George Craig, Heini Wernli, Philippe Arbogast, James D. Doyle, Ron McTaggart-Cowan, John Methven, Gwendal Rivière, Felix Ament, Maxi Boettcher, Martina Bramberger, Quitterie Cazenave, Richard Cotton, Susanne Crewell, Julien Delanoë, Andreas Dörnbrack, André Ehrlich, Florian Ewald, Andreas Fix, Christian M. Grams, Suzanne L. Gray, Hans Grob, Silke Groß, Martin Hagen, Ben Harvey, Lutz Hirsch, Marek Jacob, Tobias Kölling, Heike Konow, Christian Lemmerz, Oliver Lux, Linus Magnusson, Bernhard Mayer, Mario Mech, Richard Moore, Jacques Pelon, Julian Quinting, Stephan Rahm, Markus Rapp, Marc Rautenhaus, Oliver Reitebuch, Carolyn A. Reynolds, Harald Sodemann, Thomas Spengler, Geraint Vaughan, Manfred Wendisch, Martin Wirth, Benjamin Witschas, Kevin Wolf, and Tobias Zinner

al. 2016 ) and the associated prediction of HIW. Previous studies using measurements to study the influence of diabatic processes on the Rossby waveguide have been primarily based on routinely collected observations by operational meteorological services. These observations rely largely on satellite data, which models predominantly assimilate in cloud-free areas, and on sparse in situ measurements, all of which are combined in the data assimilation system using model forecasts as a background

Open access