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Richard R. Heim Jr. and Michael J. Brewer

are too complex for use by decision makers, unreliable seasonal forecasts, inadequate indices for detecting the early onset and end of drought, the lack of integrated physical and socioeconomic indicators for drought, the lack of impact assessment methodology, data and information frequently unavailable on an operational real-time basis, and inadequate comprehensive global historical database and assessment products ( Wilhite et al. 2000 ; Wilhite and Buchanan-Smith 2005 ; Adger et al. 2007

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Ashok K. Mishra and Vijay P. Singh

of droughts or an increase in their severity ( Wilhite and Hayes 1998 ), and based on the National Climatic Data Center ( National Climatic Data Center 2002 ) nearly 10% of the total land area experienced either severe or extreme droughts at any given time during the last century. There has been a variety of concepts ( Mishra and Singh 2010 ) applied to modeling droughts, ranging from simplistic approaches to more complex models ( Mishra and Singh 2011 ). Drought prediction or forecasting plays a

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Kingtse C. Mo, Lindsey N. Long, and Jae-Kyung E. Schemm

Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) model ( Saha et al. 2006 ; Saha et al. 2010 ). The model physics and dynamics are the same, but the horizontal resolution is different. Three coupled runs were made with the horizontal resolutions of T382, T126, and T62, respectively. The model is similar to the CFS version 2 but coupled with the GFDL Modular Ocean Model, version 3 (MOM3). It is also coupled with the Noah LSM, which has four soil layers and more realistic boundary layer physics

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