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Wassila M. Thiaw and Vadlamani B. Kumar

decades, much attention has focused on advance risk planning in agriculture and water and, more recently, on health. These initiatives require updates of weather and climate outlooks. This paper describes the active role of NOAA’s African Desk in FEWS and in enhancing the capacity of African institutions to improve forecasts. The African Desk was established in 1994 to provide services to U.S. agencies and African institutions. Emphasis is on the operational products across all time scales from

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Rosalind Cornforth, Douglas J. Parker, Mariane Diop-Kane, Andreas H. Fink, Jean-Philippe Lafore, Arlene Laing, Ernest Afiesimama, Jim Caughey, Aida Diongue-Niang, Abdou Kassimou, Peter Lamb, Benjamin Lamptey, Zilore Mumba, Ifeanyi Nnodu, Jerome Omotosho, Steve Palmer, Patrick Parrish, Leon-Guy Razafindrakoto, Wassila Thiaw, Chris Thorncroft, and Adrian Tompkins

very intense convective events. Despite this, 24-h quantitative precipitation forecasts for West Africa often have no additional skill when compared to climatology in operational ensemble forecasts from global numerical weather predication models ( Vogel et al. 2018 ). Indeed, weather forecasting and “nowcasting” for the region has in recent years fallen behind relative to other parts of the world. To advance the scientific understanding of the weather and climate of West Africa and its human

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Robert A. Clark III, Zachary L. Flamig, Humberto Vergara, Yang Hong, Jonathan J. Gourley, Daniel J. Mandl, Stuart Frye, Matthew Handy, and Maria Patterson

—with the same input data—using multiple hydrological model cores (see Fig. 3 for more information on the organization of EF5 components). Most importantly, perhaps, ensemble forecasts provide an envelope of potential solutions applicable to a specific forecasting problem and can be used to get at the underlying uncertainty characteristic of a particular forecast scenario. In 2016, EF5 became operational across the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) for flash flood forecasting by local Weather

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