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U. C. Mohanty, Krishna K. Osuri, Vijay Tallapragada, Frank D. Marks, Sujata Pattanayak, M. Mohapatra, L. S. Rathore, S. G. Gopalakrishnan, and Dev Niyogi

property loss was considerably minimized. Thus, despite the similarity in the two storms in terms of track, intensity, and lead time, the story of devastation and casualties was fortunately not repeated. There was an obvious scientific- and policy-relevant curiosity and strategic interest in the possible reasons for this success story that leads to this assessment. 2. Performance of operational TC forecasts at IMD in the last decade We conclude that the success story seen for Phailin is not due to any

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Robert Paul d'Entremont and Gary B. Gustafson

-dimensional, global land surface energy balance model known as SFCTMP, which is run operationally at the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA; Kopp et al., 1994 ). SFCTMP routinely produces global analyses of skin and shelter temperatures, plus 3- and 4.5-h forecasts, once every 3 h. The SERCAA temporal-differencing algorithm uses the skin-temperature product since it is a parameter whose time rate of change closely approximates that of TIR satellite observations. Similar to the visible background data, the SERCAA

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Tim Bardsley, Andrew Wood, Mike Hobbins, Tracie Kirkham, Laura Briefer, Jeff Niermeyer, and Steven Burian

the NOAA Colorado Basin River Forecast Center's operational hydrologic modeling framework and to simplify communication with water managers in the United States, results are reported in imperial units. The primary objective of this study is to inform water management and long-range planning decisions through a partial bottom-up assessment ( Brown and Wilby 2012 ) of SLC system sensitivities to potential vulnerabilities in water supplies given climate operational adaptation options and measures

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Jessica V. Fayne, Aakash Ahamed, Justin Roberts-Pierel, Amanda C. Rumsey, and Dalia Kirschbaum

imagery manually. This method covers larger areas and can digest more imagery relative to supervised classification, which can be useful in the context of research and situational awareness of potentially impacted areas following a major event. The SLIP algorithm requires additional refinement to remove errors from the temporal compositing before it can be fully realized as an operational tool but is an important first attempt in an automated operational framework for medium-resolution regional

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Satish Bastola, Vasubandhu Misra, and Haiqin Li

Hindcasts at 50-km grid resolution (FISH50; Misra et al. 2013 ) as a tool for seasonal hydrologic forecasting. FISH50, by way of its spatial resolution and its overall seasonal prediction skill compared to the NMME models that also include the operational seasonal climate forecasts from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), represents state-of-the-art seasonal prediction skill ( Misra et al. 2013 ). Misra et al. ( Misra et al. 2013 ) showed that seasonal prediction skill for the

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Thomas F. Lee, Francis J. Turk, Jeffrey Hawkins, and Kim Richardson

. However, since real-time data have become available in 1998 to JTWC and NHC, TMI images have become a mainstay of satellite analysis. They are also used operationally by the NHC as provided by the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL), Marine Meteorology Division. The images are based on the superior spatial resolution footprints of the TMI, which enables forecasters to use lower-frequency imagery (i.e., 37 GHz) than can be used from the lower-resolution SSM/I sensor. This paper presents several case

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David P. Brown

anomalies for the western United States, based largely on ENSO conditions, can be done effectively with a lead time of as many as 6–9 months ( Hamlet and Lettenmaier 1999 ). The strongest lagged relationship between ENSO conditions and western U.S. winter precipitation occurs during the fall season ( Harshburger et al. 2002 ), and this 3-month lead time on which winter precipitation forecasts can be based may be operationally useful to many stakeholders (e.g., McCabe et al. 2007 ; Jones and Goodrich

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Mark R. Jury and Sen Chiao

1. Introduction The atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) over coasts and large islands often exhibits confluence zones that initiate convective cloud lines ( Malkus 1955 ; Cooper et al. 1982 ; Blanchard and López 1985 ; Wilson and Schreiber 1986 ; Chen and Yu 1988 ; Wakimoto and Atkins 1994 ; Kingsmill 1995 ). The confluence zones involve frictional drag, surface heat fluxes, mountain wakes, and sea breezes—an understanding of which can aid short-range local weather forecasts. The ABL over

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Mark R. Jury

atmospheric data assimilation and forecasts, ocean reanalysis fields, and coupled climate model projections. The analysis covers thermodynamic and kinematic advection patterns contributed by the atmosphere and the background marine climate governed by the ocean. The intensity of convection in the eastern Antilles region is quantified in the period 24–25 December 2013 using 4-km Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) infrared cloud temperatures at 30-min interval, 25-km multisatellite

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Paolo Fiorucci, Francesco Gaetani, Antonio Lanorte, and Rosa Lasaponara

fact, since the number of (ground-based) resources is generally scarce and their dynamics is slow, one can think to relocate the resources near the zones that present a very high and persistent forecasted danger. In this case, because of the high operational costs of relocation, the application of the proposed method, along with reliable meteorological forecasts or observations, allows decision makers to exclude a priori a considerable percentage of the territory (in the considered case study about

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