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Aaron Johnson and Xuguang Wang

in analyses valid at 1300 UTC, which are used to initialize a deterministic forecast from the ensemble mean analysis. The quality of the analyses is evaluated by verification of the forecasts, which all use the same physics configuration and differ only in their initial conditions. The forecast physics configuration is Thompson’s microphysics scheme, the Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino (MYNN; Nakanishi and Niino 2009 ) planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme, the Goddard shortwave ( Tao et al. 2003

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Sean Stelten and William A. Gallus Jr.

as several runs of a 4-km WRF-ARW model using four different planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes, are verified to study the predictability of these initiation events. The goal of the present study is to identify the basic characteristics of and prediction deficiencies associated with nocturnal elevated CI. 2. Data and methodology a. Classification of CI events This study examines likely elevated pristine nocturnal CI (PNCI) cases during May–August of 2015. Several dates were omitted from the

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