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Peter Vogel, Peter Knippertz, Andreas H. Fink, Andreas Schlueter, and Tilmann Gneiting

horizon to few days at scales of 100 km ( Judt 2020 ). Third, small-scale physical processes such as cloud microphysics and radiation can relatively easily affect scales large enough to be of interest to predictions through their effects on the vertical profiles of latent (and radiative) heating and thus divergent wind. For example, convective invigoration by increased cloud condensation nuclei ( Rosenfeld et al. 2008 ) and larger or longer-lived anvils ( Fan et al. 2013 ) affect convective

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Eva-Maria Walz, Marlon Maranan, Roderick van der Linden, Andreas H. Fink, and Peter Knippertz

reason for this is the exceptionally high degree of convective organization observed over tropical Africa ( Nesbitt et al. 2006 ; Roca et al. 2014 ), a process that is difficult to capture with the convective parameterizations used in global NWP models ( Vogel et al. 2018 ). Kniffka et al. (2020) confirm the overall low skill in predicting local rainfall in Africa but show a positive effect of propagating synoptic-scale disturbances on forecasts of regional precipitation. The overall poor

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Roderick van der Linden, Andreas H. Fink, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Tan Phan-Van

from the Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive (IGRA; Durre et al. 2006 ). Table 1. Geographical information on the five stations in Quang Ninh Province (cf. Fig. 1 ) from which hourly rainfall measurements are available. Five-digit station ID numbers indicate a surface synoptic observation (SYNOP) station and three-digit station IDs are regional station IDs. Fig . 2. Box-and-whisker plots of accumulated rainfall (mm) during 1200 UTC 25 Jul–1200 UTC 3 Aug. The availability of historical data is

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Peter Vogel, Peter Knippertz, Andreas H. Fink, Andreas Schlueter, and Tilmann Gneiting

the initialization time. We employ the regional approach with a rolling training period of days, which yields superior results, consistent with the literature (e.g., Thorarinsdottir and Gneiting 2010 ). As shown in Figs. S2 – S5 in the supplementary material, our findings are insensitive to the choice of n when using training periods between 20 and 50 days. The local approach requires longer training periods and (in experiments not shown here) yields very similar results then. For EMOS

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