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Sean M. Wile, Joshua P. Hacker, and Kenneth H. Chilcoat

of the analysis perturbation differ in different experiments explained below. By perturbing the analysis at a point x i , the slope of the regression line between x i and J gives the expected forecast change. Further, assimilating an observation at a sensitivity point decreases σ x , reflecting more certainty in the analysis. In this case the uncertainty in forecast J should also reduce as long as the linear approximation is valid, because to a linear approximation each member of the

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