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T. Ghosh
and
T. N. Krishnamurti

1. Introduction Consensus forecasts for meteorological events were operationally used in the pioneering studies of Toth and Kalnay (1993 1997 ), Molteni et al. (1996) , Houtekamer et al. (1996) , and Goerss (2000) . Krishnamurti et al. (1999) introduced the notion of a multimodel superensemble (MMSE) to combine multimodel forecast datasets using a linear multiple regression approach that utilized the mean-square error reduction principle. Studies reported on the efficiency of this

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Zongsheng Zheng
,
Chenyu Hu
,
Zhaorong Liu
,
Jianbo Hao
,
Qian Hou
, and
Xiaoyi Jiang

. 2014 ). In the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), the typhoon intensity and the cloud turbulence degree have a very strong correlation, which is demonstrated as the spiral cloud bands (SCBs) in satellite remote sensing images ( Montgomery and Kallenbach 2010 ). Extracting intensity-associated features of SCBs provides an alternative approach to classifying and predicting TC. The most mature Dvorak analysis for assessing tropical cyclone intensity utilizes empirical regulations and constraint

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Peter Black
,
Lee Harrison
,
Mark Beaubien
,
Robert Bluth
,
Roy Woods
,
Andrew Penny
,
Robert W. Smith
, and
James D. Doyle

described in this paper to develop a statistically significant database of actual error specifications derived from laboratory testing. Because laboratory testing is not available at this time, it is impossible to differentiate between pure instrument error and atmospheric variability. Here we seek only to determine the overall variability of the coupled system as a first step toward full analysis of instrument sensitivity and measurement uncertainty. As indicated above, the hundreds of instruments

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