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Paul A. T. Higgins and Jonah V. Steinbuck

1. Introduction Understanding the potential consequences of climate change to society is extremely challenging because climate impacts will depend on a multitude of contributing factors that interact in complicated ways and that are characterized by varying degrees of uncertainty ( Moss 2011 ). For example, the risk assessment process must synthesize information from numerous disciplines that span the physical sciences (e.g., how much and how fast climate changes), natural sciences (e.g., how

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Tianyi Zhang, Xiaomao Lin, Danny H. Rogers, and Freddie R. Lamm

1. Introduction Based on the recent National Climate Assessment ( Georgakakos et al. 2014 ), seasonal drought is expected to intensify in most U.S. regions, and long-term drought will occur in large areas of the southwest, southern Great Plains, and southeast. This drying trend may pose a substantial threat to the U.S. food security because nearly two-thirds of the country’s freshwater diversions are used for agricultural irrigation ( Kenny et al. 2009 ). Irrigation has been effectively

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Mateus Possebon Bortoluzzi, Arno Bernardo Heldwein, Roberto Trentin, Ivan Carlos Maldaner, and Jocélia Rosa da Silva

) to the R2 and R3 stages. Nevertheless, seed yield was reduced from 15% to 46% when stress was applied between the R5 and full seed (R6) stages. Simulation of soybean development at different sowing dates coupled with daily sequential water balance (SWB) calculation makes it possible to obtain water deficit data over a considerable number of agricultural years. Subjecting these results to probability analysis enables acquiring the risk magnitude for different sowing dates and subperiods of the

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Brandon L. Parkes, Hannah L. Cloke, Florian Pappenberger, Jeff Neal, and David Demeritt

1. Introduction With the shift to more risk-based approaches to managing flooding, flood hazard maps and simulation models have assumed new prominence as instruments for informing policy decisions about the regulation of land use and spatial planning, pricing and availability of flood insurance, and the allocation of resources for flood defense schemes. With so much at stake in those decisions, it is important to reduce the uncertainties associated with scientific assessments of flood risk and

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Alfred J. Kalyanapu, A. K. M. Azad Hossain, Jinwoo Kim, Wondmagegn Yigzaw, Faisal Hossain, and C. K. Shum

hydrologic processes. Thus, the very existence of dam could potentially modify the design and operation components that were conceived during the predam phase. This is because future patterns of extreme weather are expected to be different from the past records that were used for the design/operation of dams and for the consequential flood risk assessment of the downstream infrastructure ( Hossain et al. 2013 ). Generally, the vulnerability assessments performed to study effects of anthropogenic climate

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Andrew J. Elmore, Gregory P. Asner, and R. Flint Hughes

objective was intended to prototype an operational fire-monitoring program that must eventually also include fire risk assessment and modeling. Our work also provides a more detailed understanding of how the invasive grass/fire cycle operates at regional scales on the dry leeward slopes of Hawaii. 2. Site description Hawaii is a volcanic island archipelago containing strong climatic gradients leading to a diversity of ecosystem types ranging from tropical rain forests to desert environments ( Figure 1

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Brian Cook, Ning Zeng, and Jin-Ho Yoon

land–vegetation feedback reduces water recycling ( Betts et al. 2004 ). In a similar teleconnection, SST patterns in the subtropical Atlantic Ocean tend to affect precipitation in southern and southwestern Amazonia, as was seen during the 2005 drought ( Marengo et al. 2008 ; Zeng et al. 2008 ) and over the last three decades ( Yoon and Zeng 2010 ). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) ( Meehl et al. 2007 ) climate simulations under specified emissions

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C. M. Girod, G. C. Hurtt, S. Frolking, J. D. Aber, and A. W. King

Global Climate Model version 1 (CGCM1) climate models ( National Assessment Synthesis Team 2001 ). Hadley and CGCM1 predict a 2.6° and 5.0°C increase in temperature, and a 168- and 107-mm increase in yearly precipitation by 2100, respectively. Every case was considered separately under each of the climate scenarios. Given that climate change can potentially affect future patterns of burned area, it may be desirable to adjust human fire reduction activities to match the new patterns of fire risk. To

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P. Grady Dixon, Andrew E. Mercer, Katarzyna Grala, and William H. Cooke

different, as shown by Brooks et al. (2003) . Figure 1. Total number of U.S. tornadoes (1950–2011) by day of the year. The dark red line is a 21-day moving average. The purpose of this study is to create seasonal tornado risk maps for the United States. This goal requires the use of objective methods to identify the appropriate distance parameter for depicting tornado frequency using a geographical information system (GIS)-based kernel density analysis function and to apply this function to objectively

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Paolo Fiorucci, Francesco Gaetani, Antonio Lanorte, and Rosa Lasaponara

fuel (layer 0). The moisture contents of perennial fuels are assumed constant over seasonal periods. The evaluation of fuel loads requires consistent and detailed information that, at least at a wide spatial scale, is often unfeasible. However, the effectiveness of remote sensing and meteorological models for water stress assessment and wild land fire risk assessment has been recognized ( Burgan et al. 1998 ; Sebastian Lopez et al. 2002 ; Caetano et al. 2004 ). Thus, only the moisture dynamics of

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